Current and future economic performance of first and second generation biofuels in developing countries

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	Current and future economic performance of first and second generation biofuels in developing countries
	van Eijck, J.
刊名	Applied Energy
	2014
卷号	135 期号:x 页码:115-141
ISSN号	0306-2619
中文摘要	Net Present Value (NPV) and total production cost calculations are made for first and second generation biofuels in 74 settings, covering 5 fuel output types, 8 feedstock types, 12 countries and 8 combinations of agricultural management systems between 2010 and 2030. Yields are assumed to increase due to better crop management and improved varieties. High NPVs (meaning profitable production) are calculated for cassava (up to 16,000 $/ha) and palm production (up to almost 7000 $/ha). But cassava can also have a negative NPV which indicates that the project investment is not without risk. The calculated NPVs for jatropha range from -900 to 2000 $/ha, while for sugarcane and soy the NPV is always positive, (2500-5000 $/ha and 200-3000 $/ha respectively) and therefore profitable. Total production costs in 2010 are estimated to vary from 5 to 45 $/GJ for 1st generation feedstocks in 2010, and from around 10-35 $/GJ in 2020, compared to 20-30 $/GJ for fossil fuels. Argentina and Malaysia are the regions with the lowest production costs for biofuel (soy and palm biodiesel for 11-15 $/GJ and 8-23 $/GJ respectively), although potential for cost reduction exists in other regions. Production costs of 2nd generation biofuels are estimated to be 17-26 $/GJ in 2020 and 14-23 $/GJ in 2030. Poplar based synfuel production in Ukraine has the lowest costs (14-17 $/GJ) and rice straw based bioethanol the highest (23-26 $/GJ) - for both the short and long term. The time between investment and benefits, as well as the size of investment and the alternative commodity markets, varies with the type of feedstock. The choice of feedstock therefore depends on the local agricultural system, and the preferences and means of the local farmers. Key to the competitive production of 2nd generation fuels is the optimisation of the conversion process, which dominates overall production costs (with 35-65% of total costs). Also important is the efficient organisation of supply chain logistics, especially for the low energy density feedstocks such as wheat straw - requires densification early in the chain. Key factors in the economic analysis are: labour costs and requirements, agricultural efficiency, conversion cost and biomass yields. Acquiring accurate location specific data is essential for detailed analyses. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
公开日期	2015-01-28
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.xtbg.org.cn/handle/353005/8111]
专题	西双版纳热带植物园_热带植物资源可持续利用重点实验室特色文献_小桐子相关文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Eijck, J.. Current and future economic performance of first and second generation biofuels in developing countries[J]. Applied Energy,2014,135(x):115-141.
APA	van Eijck, J..(2014).Current and future economic performance of first and second generation biofuels in developing countries.Applied Energy,135(x),115-141.
MLA	van Eijck, J.."Current and future economic performance of first and second generation biofuels in developing countries".Applied Energy 135.x(2014):115-141.