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	Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: An application of Dinamica EGO model
	Gao Zhiqiang
	2012
会议名称	Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability IX, August 16, 2012 - August 16, 2012
会议地点	San Diego, CA, United states
关键词	Land use Biodiversity Climate change Ecosystems Food supply Forestry Remote sensing Sustainable development Vegetation
英文摘要	Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-use change, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resource utilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-use change, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has been widely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with data extracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify the feasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change of China in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, the grassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billion hectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries. Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use area estimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%. 2012 SPIE.
收录类别	EI
会议录出版者	SPIE
语种	英语
ISSN号	0277786X
内容类型	会议论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/31054]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao Zhiqiang. Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: An application of Dinamica EGO model[C]. 见:Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability IX, August 16, 2012 - August 16, 2012. San Diego, CA, United states.

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