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	Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China
	Lu S. S. ; Liu Y. S. ; Long H. L. ; Guan X. L.
	2013
关键词	major grain producing areas agricultural production structure optimization interval-probabilistic programming food security farmers' income increase China model uncertainty management inequality
英文摘要	A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance). In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model (IPAPSOM) is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households' income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.
出处	Journal of Integrative Agriculture
卷	12
期	1
页	184-197
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	2095-3119
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30358]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu S. S.,Liu Y. S.,Long H. L.,et al. Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China. 2013.

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