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	Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach
	Zhan J. Y. ; Wu F. ; Shi C. C. ; Zhang F. ; Li Z. H.
	2013
关键词	climate-change impacts crop yields irrigation livestock growth
英文摘要	Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988-2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.
出处	Advances in Meteorology
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	1687-9309
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30064]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhan J. Y.,Wu F.,Shi C. C.,et al. Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach. 2013.

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