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	A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006
	Wang J. F. ; Xu C. D. ; Hu M. G. ; Li Q. X. ; Yan Z. W. ; Zhao P. ; Jones P.
	2014
关键词	Temperature Anomaly Series China surface air-temperature 20th-century temperature mean temperature time-series climate urban trends urbanization density update
英文摘要	While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20(th) century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE-MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900-1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE-MSN is 0.80 degrees C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41 degrees C and 1.18 degrees C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.
出处	Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres
卷	119
期	1
页	1-9
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	2169-897X
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29563]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J. F.,Xu C. D.,Hu M. G.,et al. A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006. 2014.

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