The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts
	Chen, Boyu 1; Mu, Mu 2; Qin Xiaohao 3
刊名	MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
	2013-08-01
卷号	141 期号:8 页码:2669-2682
关键词	Numerical weather prediction forecasting
ISSN号	0027-0644
通讯作者	Qin, XH
中文摘要	This study investigates the impacts on typhoon track forecasting by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system of assimilating dropwindsonde observational data acquired from different sites. All of the sonde data were obtained between 2004 and 2009 in the typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). Experiments were conducted to test the model's response to five scenarios involving differing dropwindsonde data inputs: 1) no dropwindsonde data, 2) all available dropwindsonde data, 3) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, 4) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the first singular vector (FSV) approach, and 5) several sondes selected at random. The results show that using dropwindsonde data based on CNOP sensitivity can lead to improvements in typhoon track forecasting similar to, and occasionally better than, those achieved by assimilating all of the available data. Both approaches offered greater benefits than the other three alternatives averagely. It is proposed that CNOP provides a suitable approach to determining sensitive regions during adaptive observation of typhoons. Similar results may be obtained if the sensitivity products developed using MM5 are employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), suggesting that it is applicable to utilize sensitivity produced by MM5 in WRF.
英文摘要	This study investigates the impacts on typhoon track forecasting by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system of assimilating dropwindsonde observational data acquired from different sites. All of the sonde data were obtained between 2004 and 2009 in the typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). Experiments were conducted to test the model's response to five scenarios involving differing dropwindsonde data inputs: 1) no dropwindsonde data, 2) all available dropwindsonde data, 3) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, 4) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the first singular vector (FSV) approach, and 5) several sondes selected at random. The results show that using dropwindsonde data based on CNOP sensitivity can lead to improvements in typhoon track forecasting similar to, and occasionally better than, those achieved by assimilating all of the available data. Both approaches offered greater benefits than the other three alternatives averagely. It is proposed that CNOP provides a suitable approach to determining sensitive regions during adaptive observation of typhoons. Similar results may be obtained if the sensitivity products developed using MM5 are employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), suggesting that it is applicable to utilize sensitivity produced by MM5 in WRF.
学科主题	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
研究领域[WOS]	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
关键词[WOS]	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS ; TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS ; EL-NINO EVENTS ; TARGETED OBSERVATIONS ; SENSITIVE AREAS ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; SINGULAR VECTORS ; MESOSCALE MODEL ; CNOP METHOD ; PREDICTION
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	10.1175/MWR-D-12-00142.1
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000322225200006
公开日期	2014-07-17
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/16439]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Weather Forecasting Off, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Boyu,Mu, Mu,Qin Xiaohao. The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts[J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,2013,141(8):2669-2682.
APA	Chen, Boyu,Mu, Mu,&Qin Xiaohao.(2013).The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts.MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,141(8),2669-2682.
MLA	Chen, Boyu,et al."The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts".MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 141.8(2013):2669-2682.