Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations

	Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations
	Qin, G.
刊名	Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
	2009
卷号	114 页码:A09104
关键词	solar energetic particles coronal mass ejections interplanetary transport models space earth
ISSN号	0148-0227
通讯作者	北京8701信箱
英文摘要	Real-time prediction of the arrival times at Earth of shocks is very important for space weather research. Recently, various models for shock propagation are used to forecast the shock arriving times (SATs) with information of initial coronal shock and flare from near real-time radio and X-ray data. In this paper, we add the use of solar energetic particles (SEP) observation to improve the shock arrival time (SAT) prediction. High-energy SEPs originating from flares move to the Earth much faster than the shocks related to the same flares. We develop an SAT prediction model by combining a well-known shock propagation model, STOA, and the analysis of SEPs detected at Earth. We demonstrate that the SAT predictions are improved by the new model with the help of 38-53 keV electron SEP observations. In particular, the correct prediction to false alarm ratio is improved significantly.
学科主题	空间物理
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JA014332.shtml
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/1134]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, G.. Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2009,114:A09104.
APA	Qin, G..(2009).Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,114,A09104.
MLA	Qin, G.."Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 114(2009):A09104.