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题名	贡嘎山地区泥石流对气候变化的响应
作者	徐小飞
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2007
授予单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
授予地点	成都
导师	马东涛
关键词	贡嘎山地区 泥石流 气候变化 冰川进退 响应
学位专业	自然地理学
中文摘要	贡嘎山地区位于青藏高原和四川盆地的过渡区、东亚季风和西南季风的交汇地带、我国海洋性冰川分布的最东缘，同时也是对全球气候变化最敏感和泥石流较为活跃的地区之一。近年来，随着全球气候变暖，冰川退缩，泥石流活动也日趋频繁，给当地造成了重大的损失。本文在系统收集贡嘎山地区气象、冰川和泥石流等资料的基础上，分析了研究区近50a来的气候和冰川变化，对泥石流暴发的年际、年内和暴发前夕的水热组合进行了研究，揭示了泥石流对气候变化和冰川变化的响应规律，预测了泥石流的发展趋势。研究得出以下几点结论：（1）近50a来贡嘎山地区气温和降水都经历了先下降后上升的过程，而气温的变化滞后于降水的变化。冰川变化和气候变化两者之间存在密切的联系，即气温升高，冰川退缩；反之，气温降低，冰川前进。但冰川变化对气候的响应不是即时的，其滞后的时间约为10a。（2）在湿热、湿冷、干热和干冷四种水热组合条件下都有可能暴发泥石流，但湿热气候环境最有利于泥石流发生。同时，当水热组合的转换，气温和降水波动较大时，也容易引发泥石流。泥石流类型与年内水热组合存在一定联系，冰雪融水型泥石流年内月降水量曲线一般呈双峰型或多峰型，而月平均气温曲线一般呈单峰型；冰雪雨水混合型泥石流，气温和降水曲线一般都呈单峰型。（3）泥石流对气候变化响应较为显著。泥石流多发生在水热条件最为优越的7月份；除个别年份泥石流发生在冰川前进或稳定状态，绝大部分泥石流发生在冰川退缩时期；其暴发存在一个准周期，时间约为10a。（4）通过比较分析发现，无论是年际，还是年内，都存在有利于泥石流发生的水热组合条件，而泥石流的形成是一个多要素组合且相当复杂的过程。因此，单凭水热组合来确定和预测泥石流的发生是不全面的。（5）未来全球气候变化、区域水热条件和固体物质补给状况等都向着有利于泥石流的形成和发展方向转化，研究区泥石流防灾形势严峻。
英文摘要	The Mt.Gongga is located at the transition zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Sichuan Basin, the juncture area of the East Asian monsoon and the southeast monsoon, and east of the oceanic glacier distribution, where also a region that is sensitive to global climate change and with frequently debris-flow breaking out. In recent years, with global climate warming, glacier draws back and debris-flows breaking out with high frequency, both of them bring tremendous damage to local economy and environment.Based on climatic data, glacier data and debris-flows materials in Mt.Gongga, climate and glacier changes within 50 years have been studied. Annual, inner year and the breaking-out-eve hydro-thermal allocation gained exploration in a deeply way. Meanwhile, laws of debris-flows response to climate change and glacier variation has been exposed, and the development trend of debris-flows was point out. Based on above, following conclusion has been acquired.(1) With recent 50 years, temperature and precipitation in Mt. Gongga region experienced a falling first, then a rising process, but temperature variation lags precipitation changes. There is a close relation between glacier variation and climatic change. Temperature rising accompanies glacier drawing back, and glacier expansion follows temperature falling. There is a 10-year gap between temperature variation and glacier change. It means that when temperature varies, glacier change occurs about 10 years later.(2) Usually, debris flows can break out under four hydro-thermal conditions, such as warm-humid, cold-humid, warm-dry and cold-dry, but the warm-humid climate and the intersected periods of different hydro-thermal conditions are benefited for debris flow occurring. The type of debris flow is relative to the combination of hydro-thermal conditions in a year. For glacial debris flow, the precipitation curve shows the two peaks or multiple peaks and the curve of temperature show a single peak, debris flows are mainly caused by high temperature. But for melt-water and rain water debris flow which is generated by both high temperature and abundant rainstorm, the curve of temperature and precipitation show a single peak.(3) The response of the debris flow to climate changes is evident. Debris flow usually occurs in July due to the advantageous hydro-thermal, except several occurred in the period of glacier advance or balance. Most debris flows occurred in glacier retreating period. An abou10-years period of debris flow exists. (4) by comparison analysis, it is discovered that there is hydro-thermal combination which betters debris-flows, within a year on inter-year. Formation of debris-flows is a complicated process involving multiple factors. Therefore, it is ont proper just relying on hydro-thermal combination to confirm and predict debris-flows .(5) Trend of climatic change, regional hydro-thermal condition and solid materials compensation et al. are evolving to a situation bettering formation and development of debris-flows. Thus, hazards prevention confronts sever challenge.
语种	中文
学科主题	灾害学
公开日期	2010-10-20
分类号	X19;F06
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2251]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	徐小飞. 贡嘎山地区泥石流对气候变化的响应[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2007.

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