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题名	山区水能资源开发的社会经济贡献和可持续性测度研究
作者	王明杰
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2009
授予单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
授予地点	成都
导师	方一平
关键词	山区水能资源 贡献率 生态流量 下泄流量 可持续性阈值
其他题名	On Measurement Methods of the Contribution to the Socio-economic and Sustainability, of Hydropower Resource Development, in the Mountain Regions
学位专业	自然地理学
中文摘要	山区是我国水能资源最为富集的区域，开发山区水能资源是山区经济发展的重要途经，更是国家能源战略调整的重中之重。本文应用乘数理论与生产函数理论，借助SPSS、AHP统计软件，建立山区水能资源开发的社会经济贡献测算模型；并应用可持续发展理论以及河道最小生态流量关键指标，建立了山区水能资源开发阈值测度模型：初次提出了一套测算山区水能资源可持续开发程度的方法，并以金沙江流域为例进行了实证研究，为山区水能资源可持续开发提供科学依据。主要研究结论如下： (1)山区水能资源开发利用程度总体上东部地区高于西部地区；山区水能资源开发潜力由东部地区向西南地区逐渐增高；我国西南是开发程度最低、开发潜力最高、资源富集量最高的地区，其中四川省是最有代表性的省份。 (2)本文依据乘数理论建立了经济贡献测算模型，用来测算水电投资、水电发电量、水电装机容量3个重要指标对GDP增长的贡献；依据生产函数理论建立了经济贡献测算模型，用来测算水电发电量、全社会固定资产投入、科技投入、劳动力要素对GDP增长的贡献；并结合两种理论，建立就业贡献模型，用来测算水电产业对全国就业的总贡献、直接贡献和间接贡献。从构建的贡献测算模型适用特征看，应用乘数理论与生产函数理论两种方法均可获得预期结果，但采用乘数理论测算的结果相对较低，采用生产函数理论测算的结果能够得到更多的信息；如果数据连续时间段较长(大于8年)，采用生产函数理论测算比较精确；在时间段较短的情况下，采用乘数理论测算方法比较适合。 (3)经济贡献方面： 依据乘数理论模型，1996～2006年间，全国水电投资、装机容量、发电量对GDP增长的平均贡献率分别为：0.05%、2.48%、1.34%，其中，水电投资对GDP的贡献逐年减小，装机容量、发电量对GDP的贡献逐年增加；依据生产函数模型，科技投入、第二产业固定资产投资、发电量、劳动力对GDP增长的平均贡献率为：82.04%、12.99%、3.37%和1.60%。 西南、西北、中南、东北、华北、华东六区水电发电量对GDP增长的平均贡献率依次为：1.13%、0.98%、0.88%、0.45%、0.35%、0.02%；在全社会固定资产投资、发电量、劳动力等要素中，发电量对GDP增长的贡献率区域之间变化较大，区域差异性突出，固定资产投资与发电量对GDP贡献的敏感性较高，而劳动力要素相对较低。 从四川省域看，依据乘数理论模型，1996～2006年间，水电投资、装机容量、发电量对GDP增长的平均贡献率为：0.35%、10.83%、6.39%：其中，水电投资对GDP的贡献逐年降低，2006年为18.16%，装机容量、发电量对GDP的贡献逐年波动增加；依据生产函数模型，科技投入、第二产业固定资产投入、发电量、劳动力对GDP增长的平均贡献率依次为：92.96%、4.56%、1.58%、0.90%。 (4)就业贡献方面：2006年，水电产业对全国就业的总贡献是57.30%，而直接贡献0.14%，间接贡献高达57.16%。2000～2006年，水电产业对全国就业的总贡献呈现先减后增趋势；水电产业对全国就业的直接贡献表现为逐渐减小的趋势。 (5)河道最小生态流量是河道生态健康的基础，也是水能资源持续性开发的保障。本文以最小下泄流量为依据，建立了测度流域水能资源开发持续性的模型，并对金沙江流域进行了实证研究，结果表明：金沙江干流已开发程度为37%，小于开发程度阈值(88%)，就此指标判断，尚有开发潜力，中游支流雅砻江已开发程度为75.73%，小于开发程度阈值(90%)，同样也具有开发潜力；由于生态流量的限制，以及上、中、下游流域生态敏感性的差异，总体上，上、中游支流以开发中，小型电站为最优，尤其是上游支流应以开发小型电站为主，干流、上游支流、中游支流开发程度阈值分别为：88%、40%、70%；整体上，上游支流已开发程度和可持续性开发阈值均小于中游支流水平，说明上游水电开发对生态系统的危害高于中游：中游支流部分流域的开发程度已超出阈值。
英文摘要	The most of Hydropower resource in our country is local in the mountain areas, in the background of developing mountains’ economy, exploiting the hydropower resource of the mountain areas is the most important in all. This paper, applying the multiplier theory and production function theory, at base of the SPSS and AHP statistical software, builds some measurements models for socio-economic contribution of hydropower resources development; at the same time, the paper, applying the sustainable development theory and selects the smallest ecological flow as a crucial indicator, then, the paper builds a set of methods for estimating the threshold of hydropower’s development in the watershed, and selects Jinsha River to conduct empirical research as a example, the methods above provide some scientific basis for the sustainable development of hydropower resource. The main conclusions of the studying are in the follow: (1) The extent of the development and utilization of the hydropower resource in the mountain areas: increasing from west to east; the development potential of hydropower resource in mountain areas: increasing from east to south-west. The exploitation degree of hydropower resource in mountains is the lowest in southwest, but the developing potential and the reserve of hydropower resource is the highest in southwest, especially, Sichuan Province are the most representative of the all provinces. (2) According to the multiplier theory, the paper builds some models of economic contribution: the models are used to measure the contribution of three indicators to GDP growth, including the investment in hydropower, hydropower generating capacity and hydropower installed capacity; according to production function theory, the paper builds some models of economic contribution: the models are used to measure the contribution rate of four indicators to GDP growth, including hydropower generating capacity, total fixed asset investment, input of the science and technology and labors; then, according to the combination of the two theories above, the paper sets up a model of the employment contribution: the model is used to measure the total contribution(including the direct and indirect contribution) of hydropower industry to national employment. The applicable Characteristics of the models: the application of the multiplier theory and production function theory all can measures the results expected; the results, which is calculated according to multiplier theory, are relatively low; the results, which is calculated according to production function theory, can get more information; If the period of data is a longer time, and the period is not less than 8 years, the production function theory should be applied, and the results calculated is more precise; But if the period of data is a shorter time, the multiplier theory should be applied, and the results are the more suitable. (3) Economic contribution: Between 1996 and 2006, according to the measuring model of multiplier theory, the average contribution rate of investment in hydropower, hydropower generating capacity and hydropower installed capacity to the GDP growth: 0.05%, 2.48% and 1.34%, among that, the contribution of investment in hydropower to GDP is reduce year by year, the contribution of the hydropower installed capacity and hydropower generating capacity to GDP is increase year by year; according to the measuring model of production function, the average contribution rate of input of the science and technology, the secondary industry investment in fixed assets, hydropower generating capacity and labor to the GDP growth: 82.04%, 12.99%, 3.37% and 1.6%. the contribution rate of hydropower generating capacity to GDP growth in the Southwest, Northwest, South Africa, Northeast, North China and East China: 1.13%, 0.98%, 0.98%, 0.45%, 0.35% and 0.02%, among hydropower generating capacity, total fixed asset investment and labors, the contribution rate of hydropower generating capacity to GDP growth is affected by geographical factors more easily, the sensitivity of hydropower generating capacity and total fixed asset investment to economy contribution rate is higher, and the labors is lower. Judging from Sichuan Province: Between 1996 and 2006, according to the measuring model of multiplier theory, the average contribution rate of investment in hydropower, hydropower generating capacity and hydropower installed capacity to the GDP growth: 0.35%, 10.83% and 6.39%; among that, the contribution of investment in hydropower to GDP is reduce year by year, the value is 18.16% in 2006 year, the contribution of the hydropower installed capacity and hydropower generating capacity to GDP is increase wavely; according to the measuring model of production function, the average contribution rate of input of the science and technology, the secondary industry investment in fixed assets, hydropower generating capacity and labor to the GDP growth: 92.96%, 4.56%, 1.58% and 0.90%. (4) The contribution to employment: In 2006, hydropower industry's total contribution to national employment is 57.30%, but the direct contribution to national employment is 0.14%, and the indirect contribution to national employment is up to 57.16%. Between 2000 and 2006, hydropower industry's total contribution to national employment is to reduce at first, and is to increase later; hydropower industry's direct contribution to national employment is gradually reduced. (5) Minimum ecological flow of the river is the basis of the health river ecosystem, and is also the safeguard of the sustainable development of hydropower resource. The paper sets up some models that can measure the minimum discharge flow at first, and then based on both traffic capacity and ecological flow, the paper sets up a set of model for estimating the optimal level of hydropower resource’s exploitation. And the paper selects Jinsha River to conduct empirical research as a example, finds that: in the main stream of the Jinsha River, the developed level (37%) is smaller than the optimal development(88%), and there is potential in the river; in Yalong river(the tributaries of the middle reaches of the Jinsha River), the developed level (75.73%) is smaller than the optimal development(90%), and also there is potential in the river; because of restriction of ecological flow, and because of the different of ecological sensitivity in the up, middle and down reaches, in general, building small-scarl and midlle-scarl hydropower station is suitable in the tributaries of the up and middle reaches, among that, building small-scarl hydropower station is suitable in the tributaries of the up reaches, building midlle-scarl hydropower station is suitable in the tributaries of the middle reaches, the main stream, the optimal level of hydropower resource’s exploitation in the tributaries of the up reaches and the tributaries of middle reaches: 88%、40%、70%; in general, the developed level and the sustainable threshold in the tributaries of the up reaches are lower than that in the tributaries of the middle reaches, in the other words, the harm of hydropower exploitation to river ecosystem in up reaches is higher than that in middle reaches; the exploiting level of hydropower resource in part river of middle reaches is beyond the sustainable threshold.
语种	中文
学科主题	生态学
公开日期	2010-10-13
分类号	TV2;TV7
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2171]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王明杰. 山区水能资源开发的社会经济贡献和可持续性测度研究[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2009.

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