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题名	中国山区草地资源开发潜力与人口容量评价
作者	鲍文
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2009
授予单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
授予地点	成都
导师	崔鹏 ; 陈国阶
关键词	中国山区 草地资源 开发潜力 人口容量 评价
其他题名	Evaluation of Rangeland Resources Development Potential and Human Carrying Capacity in China Mountain Areas
学位专业	自然地理学
中文摘要	我国山区占国土面积的比重达69%，中国山区大量人口都在一定程度上要依赖山区草地资源，尤其是在水资源和农业食物生产的生物多样性方面。就中国的生态安全和食物安全而言，山区草地资源开发也是值得进一步研究的。作为一个农业资源相对匮乏的发展中国家，如何充分发挥山区各类农业资源的作用，挖掘其发展潜力，满足我国经济社会发展的需要，是我国山区发展面临的一个重大战略问题。我国人口众多，耕地面积少，用好、管好、建设好我国的山区草地资源，使其地尽其力，永续利用，对缓解粮食需求矛盾，提高人民生活水平，繁荣少数民族地区经济，巩固边防，维护和改善生态环境，都具有不可估量的作用。草地是草地畜牧业最重要的物质基础，是野生动物栖息、繁殖的场所，草地还具有防风固沙、涵养水源、维护生态环境的作用。草地资源是我国重要的可更新资源，利用合理、管理得当、建设的好，可以取之不尽，用之不竭；反之，竭泽而渔，掠夺经营，则会造成草地退化、环境恶化、资源枯竭，贻害子孙。 本文根据中国草地资源发展有关规划，在相关研究的基础上对2007年、2010年、2030年和2050年中国山区草地资源开发潜力进行了分析预测，采用粮食当量指标对中国山区草地资源人口容量进行了分析预测，并对挖掘山区草地资源开发潜力的差异化发展战略进行研究，由此提出政策建议。文章的创新点和结论如下： 第一，山区拥有草地面积3.53×108 hm2，占我国草地总面积4×108hm2的88%，山区草地构成了我国草地的主体，也是中国山区发展的重要依赖资源之一。 第二，中国山区草地面积基本保持稳定，人工草地比重稳定增加。山区草地面积将保持在3.5×108hm2左右，人工草地占山区草地面积的比重在2010年、2030年和2050年分别达到不低于5%、10%和15%； 第三，中国山区草地生产力保持稳定增长，2007年中国山区天然草地生产力为1046 kg/hm2，2010年为1049 kg/hm2，2030年达到1365 kg/hm2，2050年为1347 kg/hm2，人工草地比重的持续增加成为中国山区草地生产力稳定增长的主要来源； 第四，中国山区草地资源理论载畜量稳步提高，2007年我国山区草地资源理论载畜量在3.46×108-4.47×108羊单位之间；2010年在3.91×108-5.06 ×108羊单位之间；2030年在5.05×108-7. 31×108羊单位之间；2050年在6.38×108-8.27×108羊单位之间。载畜量的增加越来越多的来源于知识密集型草产业的发展，主要体现在牧草资源科学利用水平和出栏率的提高等方面。 第五，山区草地资源虽然有着巨大的发展潜力，但是其人口容量在一定的时间和科学技术水平条件下也是有限的，2007年中国山区草地资源人口容量在2178.4-2817.4万人之间，2010年在2733.2-3544.6万人之间，2030年在3557.3-4607.1万人之间，2050年在3351.4-4340.6之间，我国山区草地资源人口容量从2010-2030年呈现较快增长和2030-2050年趋于缓慢下降的趋势。 最后，提出了差异化的山区草地资源开发战略和基于山区草地资源开发潜力与人口容量分析的战略对策。
英文摘要	Mountain areas occupy 69% of China’s land surface; many populations are reliant on them, in particular for water resources and agriculture biodiversity for food production. Given the importance of China’s ecological security and food security, development of rangeland resources in mountain areas is worthy of further investigation. China is a developing country with a large population and relatively insufficient agricultural resources. How to make full use of all sorts of agricultural resources in mountain areas and to develop their potential productivity so as to meet the needs of our country’s economic and social development is a significant strategic problem that China is now faced with. China has a big population but limited arable land. It is extremely important to tap, manage and reconstruct the rangeland efficiently so that it will be productive continuously, and as a result help to ease food shortage, enhance people’s livelihood, promote the economy of the minority regions, reinforce the frontiers and improve the ecological environment of the country as a whole. Rangeland is the basic resource for developing rangeland animal industry. Apart from being a wild habitat, it is also important for ecological protection by its capacity to keep down the wind, fix the sand, and conserve water. Rangeland is a significant renewable wealth, which is inexhaustible if we use reasonably, manage and construct it effectively. If otherwise we overgraze it, exploit it unreasonably, the rangeland would deteriorate, upsetting the ecological balance, causing depletion of living creatures, and entailing untold troubles to the posterity. According to China rangeland resources development plans and on the basis of relevant studies，the paper analyzes and forecasts the rangeland resources development potential and human carrying capacity by grain equivalent in China mountain areas in 2007，2010，2030 and 2050. Then we make some study on the differential development strategies in rangeland resources of mountain areas and give some policy suggestions. The innovations and conclusions are bellows: Firstly，it boasts about 353 million hectares of rangeland resources in China mountain areas and possess 88% of China’s rangeland resources. The rangeland resources in China mountain areas is the main body of China’s rangeland resources and is the dependent resources of China mountain areas. Secondly, the area of rangeland resources in mountain areas keeps steady and the percentage of artificial pasture rises steadily. It will retain about 350 million hectares of rangeland resources in mountain areas during the year 2010-2050 ，the percentage of artificial pasture will reach 5, 10 and 15 in the year 2010, 2030 and 2050. Thirdly, the rangeland productivity will stably increase, and the natural rangeland productivity is 1046 kg/hm2 in 2007, 1049 kg/hm2 in 2010, 1365 kg/hm2 in 2030 and 1347 kg/hm2 in 2050.The increase of the percentage of artificial pasture is the main source of the rangeland productivity increasing. Fourthly, the theoretical livestock capacity rises substantially. It is 346-447 million sheep unit in 2007, 391 - 506 million sheep unit in 2010，505-731 million sheep unit in 2030，638-827 million sheep unit in 2050. The theoretical livestock capacity expanded with the development of knowledge-intensive pratacultural industry mainly because of the scientific development of pastures and commercial development of livestock production. Fifthly, human carrying capacity of the rangeland resources in mountain areas is finite with certain technological development level in some time. It is 21-28 million person in 2007， 27 - 35 million person in 2010，35-46 million person in 2030，33-43 million person in 2010. The human carrying capacity of the rangeland resources in mountain areas increases steadily from 2010 to 2030 and , decreases slowly from 2030 to 2050. At last, different development strategies in mountain areas and some strategic countermeasures based on the analysis of rangeland resources development potential and human carrying capacity are suggested by the author.
语种	中文
学科主题	生态经济学
公开日期	2010-10-13
分类号	S81;S71
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2155]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	鲍文. 中国山区草地资源开发潜力与人口容量评价[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2009.

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