Development of an integrated model for assessing landslide susceptibility on vegetated slopes under random rainfall scenarios
Jiang, Hu2,4; Zou, Qiang3,4; Jiang, Yao4; Zhou, Bin2,4; Yao, Hongkun2,4; Cui, Junfang4; Zhou, Wentao2,4; Chen, Siyu1,4
刊名ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING
2024-02-01
卷号199页码:18
关键词Landslides Susceptibility Slope stability Infinite slope model Qinghai -Tibet plateau
ISSN号0925-8574
DOI10.1016/j.ecoleng.2023.107150
英文摘要

Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis has been extensively employed to predict the likelihood of landslides owing to its remarkable predictive capability. However, due to an insufficiently comprehensive analysis of the vegetation-disaster connection, this approach may face limitations in its application to regions where there is significant variation in vegetation diversity and topography. An integrated model was thus proposed for predicting landslide susceptibility with the consideration of the positive and negative effects of vegetation on slope stability. However, to accurately implement the slope failure process under the influence of vegetation, it is important to have a high temporal resolution rainfall scenario for simulating the interception process of vegetation crowns on rainfall. Analysis of vegetation hydrological processes is associated with difficulties in a regional area because of limited data availability. The stochastic simulation method for extreme rainfall scenarios, adopted in this study, is known to be effective in dealing with uncertainty caused by insufficient data. The method, which comprises the Gumbel model and Bounded Random Cascade Model (BRCM), was used to overcome the difficulties in integrating the comprehensive effects of vegetation, the results of which provide refined rainfall scenarios for landslide susceptibility prediction from the perspective of the failure mechanism of vegetated slopes. The application of the proposed method for landslide susceptibility zoning was validated using a confusion matrix and ROC curve analysis in a practical case. Results showed that the method performed effectively and reliably. Furthermore, this study investigated the influence of different extreme rainfall scenarios on slope stability. Results revealed that as the return period of extreme rainfall increased from 50 to 150 years, the overall proportion of susceptible areas for different rainfall durations exhibited an upward trend. Additionally, the study found that increasing vegetation biomass had a positive impact on slope stability in the study area. The findings of this study are significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous regions, providing scientific support for risk management strategies.

资助项目Project of Applications for network security and Informatization, CAS[CAS-WX2021SF-010604] ; Light of West China Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[xbzg-zdsys-202104] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42171085] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Planning Program[2023YFS0434]
WOS关键词PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; STABILITY ; PREDICTION ; SCALE ; TIME ; UNCERTAINTY ; GENERATION ; RESOLUTION
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Engineering
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER
WOS记录号WOS:001136033400001
资助机构Project of Applications for network security and Informatization, CAS ; Light of West China Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Sichuan Science and Technology Planning Program
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/57854]  
专题中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者Zou, Qiang
作者单位1.Southwest Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm & Resource, Mianyang 621010, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.CAS HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
4.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jiang, Hu,Zou, Qiang,Jiang, Yao,et al. Development of an integrated model for assessing landslide susceptibility on vegetated slopes under random rainfall scenarios[J]. ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING,2024,199:18.
APA Jiang, Hu.,Zou, Qiang.,Jiang, Yao.,Zhou, Bin.,Yao, Hongkun.,...&Chen, Siyu.(2024).Development of an integrated model for assessing landslide susceptibility on vegetated slopes under random rainfall scenarios.ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING,199,18.
MLA Jiang, Hu,et al."Development of an integrated model for assessing landslide susceptibility on vegetated slopes under random rainfall scenarios".ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING 199(2024):18.
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