Prediction error analysis of wind power based on clustering and non-parametric kernel density estimation

	Prediction error analysis of wind power based on clustering and non-parametric kernel density estimation
	Zhang, Xiaoying 1,3,4; Zhang, Xiaomin 1,3,4; Liao, Shun 2; Chen, Wei 1,3,4; Wang, Xiaolan 1,3,4
刊名	Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
	2019-12-28
卷号	40 期号:12 页码:3594-3604
关键词	Cluster analysis Errors Iterative methods Probability distributions Statistics Weather forecasting Wind power Fitting accuracy Non-parametric estimations Segmental clustering Wind power forecast Window width
ISSN号	02540096
英文摘要	According to the characteristics of season, time sequence and power change of the actual wind power prediction error, a new research method is proposed based on the clustering analysis and the non-parametric kernel density estimation to study the probability distribution of wind power prediction error. By using the method of the cluster analysis for months and time frame reduction, the data with the similar error characteristics is effectively classified to a group, which ensures the diversity and the overall trend of error distribution. On the basis of this, considering the power characteristics, using the proposed method to simulate the wind power forecast error probability distribution, the iterative method is adopted to solve the window width in the process. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the evaluating indicator of fitting accuracy. © 2019, Editorial Board of Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. All right reserved.
语种	中文
出版者	Science Press
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/114386]
专题	电气工程与信息工程学院
作者单位	1.Key Laboratory of Gansu Advanced Control for Industrial Processes, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou; 730050, China; 2.Liangshan Power Supply Corporation, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company, Xichang; 615000, China 3.College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou; 730050, China; 4.National Demonstration Center for Experimental Electrical and Control Engineering Education, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou; 730050, China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xiaoying,Zhang, Xiaomin,Liao, Shun,et al. Prediction error analysis of wind power based on clustering and non-parametric kernel density estimation[J]. Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2019,40(12):3594-3604.
APA	Zhang, Xiaoying,Zhang, Xiaomin,Liao, Shun,Chen, Wei,&Wang, Xiaolan.(2019).Prediction error analysis of wind power based on clustering and non-parametric kernel density estimation.Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,40(12),3594-3604.
MLA	Zhang, Xiaoying,et al."Prediction error analysis of wind power based on clustering and non-parametric kernel density estimation".Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica 40.12(2019):3594-3604.