Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework

doi:10.1016/j.eap.2022.02.010

CORC > 自动化研究所 > 中国科学院自动化研究所 > 复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室 > 互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心

	Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework
	Xie, Qiwei 2; Hao, Jingjing 2; Li, Jingyu 2; Zheng, Xiaolong 1
刊名	ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
	2022-06-01
卷号	74 页码:382-401
关键词	Carbon price prediction Text mining Climate change Long short-term memory (LSTM) Random forest (RF)
ISSN号	0313-5926
DOI	10.1016/j.eap.2022.02.010
通讯作者	Li, Jingyu(lijy@bjut.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Carbon trading is a vital market mechanism to achieve carbon emission reduction. The accurate prediction of the carbon price is conducive to the effective management and decision-making of the carbon trading market. However, existing research on carbon price forecasting has ignored the impacts of multiple factors on the carbon price, especially climate change. This study proposes a text-based framework for carbon price prediction that considers the impact of climate change. Textual online news is innovatively employed to construct a climate-related variable. The information is combined with other variables affecting the carbon price to forecast the carbon price, using a long short-term memory network and random forest model. The results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the carbon price in the Hubei and Guangdong carbon markets is enhanced by adding the textual variable that measures climate change. (C)& nbsp;2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[61673381] ; Key programs of social science of Beijing Municipal Education Commission[SZ202210005004] ; Natural Science Foundation of Beijing[9202002] ; State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation[2021-zz-168] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2020AAA0108401] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2019QY(Y)0101] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2020M680281]
WOS关键词	EU-ETS ; CHINA ; MARKET ; VOLATILITY ; EMISSIONS ; IMPACTS ; POLICY ; IDENTIFICATION ; SPILLOVERS ; INTERVAL
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000792955200002
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key programs of social science of Beijing Municipal Education Commission ; Natural Science Foundation of Beijing ; State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/49434]
专题	自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心
通讯作者	Li, Jingyu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Qiwei,Hao, Jingjing,Li, Jingyu,et al. Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework[J]. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY,2022,74:382-401.
APA	Xie, Qiwei,Hao, Jingjing,Li, Jingyu,&Zheng, Xiaolong.(2022).Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY,74,382-401.
MLA	Xie, Qiwei,et al."Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework".ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY 74(2022):382-401.