Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abg8068

	Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change
	Bernardo, Carmela 1; Wang, Lingfei 4; Vasca, Francesco 1; Hong, Yiguang 4; Shi, Guodong 2; Altafini, Claudio 3
刊名	SCIENCE ADVANCES
	2021-12-01
卷号	7 期号:51 页码:16
ISSN号	2375-2548
DOI	10.1126/sciadv.abg8068
英文摘要	The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamical model describing the achievement of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. To represent the complex, decade-long, multiparty negotiation process that led to the accord, we use a two time scale dynamical model. The short time scale corresponds to the discussion process occurring at each meeting and is represented as a Friedkin-Johnsen model, a dynamical multiparty model in which the parties show stubbornness, i.e., tend to defend their positions during the discussion. The long time scale behavior is determined by concatenating multiple Friedkin-Johnsen models (one for each meeting). The proposed model, tuned on real data extracted from the Paris Agreement meetings, achieves consensus on a time horizon similar to that of the real negotiations. Remarkably, the model is also able to identify a series of parties that exerted a key leadership role in the Paris Agreement negotiation process.
资助项目	Swedish Research Council[2020-03701] ; Swedish ELLIIT program at Linkoping University ; Australian Research Council[DP190103615]
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
WOS记录号	WOS:000730600400002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59712]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Altafini, Claudio
作者单位	1.Univ Sannio, Dept Engn, Grp Res Automat Control Engn, I-82100 Benevento, Italy 2.Univ Sydney, Australian Ctr Field Robot, Sch Aerosp Mech & Mechatron Engn, Sydney, NSW 2008, Australia 3.Linkoping Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Div Automat Control, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Key Lab Syst & Control, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bernardo, Carmela,Wang, Lingfei,Vasca, Francesco,et al. Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change[J]. SCIENCE ADVANCES,2021,7(51):16.
APA	Bernardo, Carmela,Wang, Lingfei,Vasca, Francesco,Hong, Yiguang,Shi, Guodong,&Altafini, Claudio.(2021).Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.SCIENCE ADVANCES,7(51),16.
MLA	Bernardo, Carmela,et al."Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change".SCIENCE ADVANCES 7.51(2021):16.