Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study

doi:10.1177/00472875211036194

	Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study
	Zhang, Chengyuan 2; Li, Mingchen 3,4; Sun, Shaolong 5; Tang, Ling 6; Wang, Shouyang 1,3,4
刊名	JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
	2021-10-18
页码	18
关键词	tourism demand forecasting decomposition methods variational mode decomposition decomposition and ensemble machine learning
ISSN号	0047-2875
DOI	10.1177/00472875211036194
英文摘要	Decomposition methods are extensively used for processing the complex patterns of tourism demand data. Given tourism demand data's intrinsic complexity, it is critical to theoretically understand how different decomposition methods provide solutions. However, a comprehensive comparison of decomposition methods in tourism demand forecasting is still lacking. Hence, this study systematically investigates the forecasting performance of decomposition methods in tourism demand. Nine popular decomposition methods and six forecasting methods are employed, and their forecasting performance is compared. With Hong Kong visitor arrivals from eight major sources as a sample, three main conclusions are obtained from empirical results. First, all the decomposition methods generally outperform benchmark at all horizons, in both the level and directional forecasting. Second, decomposition methods can be divided into four categories based on forecasting accuracy. Finally, variational mode decomposition method is consistently superior to other eight decomposition methods and can provide the best forecasts in all cases.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[xpt012020022]
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000710454800001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59450]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Sun, Shaolong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, 28 Xianning West Rd, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 6.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Chengyuan,Li, Mingchen,Sun, Shaolong,et al. Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study[J]. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,2021:18.
APA	Zhang, Chengyuan,Li, Mingchen,Sun, Shaolong,Tang, Ling,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study.JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,18.
MLA	Zhang, Chengyuan,et al."Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study".JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH (2021):18.