Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105355

	Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China
	Zheng, Jiali 1,2,3; Duan, Hongbo 1; Zhou, Sheng 4; Wang, Shouyang 1,2; Gao, Ji 6; Jiang, Kejun 5; Gao, Shuo 6
刊名	ENERGY ECONOMICS
	2021-08-01
卷号	100 页码:11
关键词	Integrated assessment model Multi-model comparisons Paris agreement pledges Energy restructuring Mitigation China
ISSN号	0140-9883
DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105355
英文摘要	Enhancing the temperature-increase limit to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C is of great significance for climate change mitigation, and this stricter limit challenges China's role in combating global warming. This study aims to explore how China addresses such challenges in the attainment of this more stringent warming-limit goal through sustainable transition. By using multi-model analysis, the robustness of findings is enhanced, while providing appropriate options based on model comparisons. The 1.5 degrees C limit means further reduction of emissions-up to 22%-and a ten-year earlier peak. From 2 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C, primary energy consumption will decrease by 22% to 28%, while policy costs will further increase by up to 37%. Greater technological progress facilitates larger contributions to CO2 emission reductions, given the shift from 2 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C. With diminishing marginal policy costs, the energy system can be reconstructed by initiating early actions on low-carbon and negative-emission technology development, and in the long term by coordinating state-of-the-art alternative technologies. This study provides reliable assessments of goal-strengthened achievements for China, including emission reductions, technology development, structural improvement, and economic performance for China. Furthermore, this study's multi-model comparisons show underlying implications for sustainable transition, which could also be conducive to the global practice of addressing climate change.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874096] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi[2021JQ-064] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608603]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000694892100028
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59278]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Duan, Hongbo
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 4.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 5.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Energy Res Inst, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 6.Environm Def Fund, Beijing 100007, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng, Jiali,Duan, Hongbo,Zhou, Sheng,et al. Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS,2021,100:11.
APA	Zheng, Jiali.,Duan, Hongbo.,Zhou, Sheng.,Wang, Shouyang.,Gao, Ji.,...&Gao, Shuo.(2021).Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China.ENERGY ECONOMICS,100,11.
MLA	Zheng, Jiali,et al."Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C from 2 degrees C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China".ENERGY ECONOMICS 100(2021):11.