Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7

CORC > 植物研究所 > 中国科学院植物研究所 > 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室

	Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
	Wang, Xuhui ; Zhao, Chuang ; Mueller, Christoph 8; Wang, Chenzhi ; Ciais, Philippe 9; Janssens, Ivan 10; Penuelas, Josep 5,7; Asseng, Senthold 4; Li, Tao 3; Elliott, Joshua 6
刊名	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
	2020
卷号	3 期号:11 页码:908-916
ISSN号	2398-9629
DOI	10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S-T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 +/- 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 +/- 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 +/- 5.8% K-1). For wheat,S(T)was 89% likely to be negative (-2.9 +/- 2.3% K-1). Uncertainties associated with modelledS(T)were reduced by 12-54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentanglingS(T)of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3-13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO(2)fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3-13% under 2 degrees C warming.
学科主题	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
出版地	BERLIN
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELD ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; MAJOR CROPS ; IMPACTS ; GROWTH ; MODELS ; CO2 ; SENSITIVITY ; ENSEMBLES
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE RESEARCH
WOS记录号	WOS:000544156000005
资助机构	National Key Research & Development Program of China [2019YFA0607300] ; Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA20050101]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/21702]
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL USA 4.CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, CEAB,UAB, Barcelona, Spain 5.CREAF, Barcelona, Spain 6.Appl GeoSolut, Durham, NH USA 7.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Antwerp, Belgium 8.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany 10.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xuhui,Zhao, Chuang,Mueller, Christoph,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2020,3(11):908-916.
APA	Wang, Xuhui.,Zhao, Chuang.,Mueller, Christoph.,Wang, Chenzhi.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Piao, Shilong.(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,3(11),908-916.
MLA	Wang, Xuhui,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 3.11(2020):908-916.