Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation

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	Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation
	Wei, Fangli; Wang, Shuai; Fu, Bojie; Brandt, Martin; Pan, Naiqing; Wang, Cong; Fensholt, Rasmus
刊名	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
	2020-08
卷号	26 期号:8 页码:4495-4505
关键词	African savanna drivers ensemble empirical mode decomposition method fire nonlinear dynamics precipitation turning points
ISSN号	1354-1013
英文摘要	Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human-driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Nino events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite-derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001-2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub-Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10 degrees-15 degrees S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/44398]
专题	生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, Fangli,Wang, Shuai,Fu, Bojie,et al. Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2020,26(8):4495-4505.
APA	Wei, Fangli.,Wang, Shuai.,Fu, Bojie.,Brandt, Martin.,Pan, Naiqing.,...&Fensholt, Rasmus.(2020).Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,26(8),4495-4505.
MLA	Wei, Fangli,et al."Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 26.8(2020):4495-4505.