Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the 'Belt and Road Initiative' Countries

doi:10.3390/en14175455

	Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the 'Belt and Road Initiative' Countries
	Sun, Lili 1; Cui, Huijuan 1; Ge, Quansheng 1,2
刊名	ENERGIES
	2021-09-01
卷号	14 期号:17 页码:21
关键词	Belt and Road Initiative carbon emission driving factors SSP scenario
DOI	10.3390/en14175455
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	'Belt and Road Initiative' (B&R) countries play critical roles in mitigating global carbon emission under the Paris agreement, but their driving factors and feasibility to reduce carbon emissions remain unclear. This paper aims to identify the main driving factors (MDFs) behind carbon emissions and predict the future emissions trajectories of the B&R countries under different social-economic pathways based on the extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model. The empirical results indicate that GDP per capita and energy consumption structure are the MDFs that promote carbon emission, while energy intensity improvement is the MDF that inhibits carbon emission. Population, as another MDF, has a dual impact across countries. The carbon emissions in all B&R countries are predicted to increase from SSP1 to SSP3, but emissions trajectories vary across countries. Under the SSP1 scenario, carbon emissions in over 60% of B&R countries can peak or decline, and the aggregated peak emissions will amount to 21.97 Gt in 2030. Under the SSP2 scenario, about half of the countries can peak or decline, while their peak emissions and peak time are both higher and later than SSP1, the highest emission of 25.35 Gt is observed in 2050. Conversely, over 65% of B&R countries are incapable of either peaking or declining under the SSP3 scenario, with the highest aggregated emission of 33.10 Gt in 2050. It is further suggested that decline of carbon emission occurs when the inhibiting effects of energy intensity exceed the positive impacts of other MDFs in most B&R countries.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2019M650824] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053]
WOS关键词	SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; EXTENDED STIRPAT MODEL ; LOWER CO2 EMISSIONS ; IMPACT FACTORS ; CHINA ; ENERGY ; URBANIZATION ; DRIVERS ; DETERMINANTS ; ACHIEVE
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000694121900001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165380]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Lili,Cui, Huijuan,Ge, Quansheng. Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the 'Belt and Road Initiative' Countries[J]. ENERGIES,2021,14(17):21.
APA	Sun, Lili,Cui, Huijuan,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the 'Belt and Road Initiative' Countries.ENERGIES,14(17),21.
MLA	Sun, Lili,et al."Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the 'Belt and Road Initiative' Countries".ENERGIES 14.17(2021):21.