A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering

doi:10.1111/cobi.13797

	A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering
	Ferrarini, Alessandro 6; Bai, Yang 1; Dai, Junhu 2,3,5; Alatalo, Juha M.4
刊名	CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
	2021-08-23
页码	10
关键词	classifier chains climate change multilabel modeling plant species conservation rare species Swiss Alps Cadenas de clasificacion cambio climatico conservacion de especies de plantas modelado multi-etiqueta
ISSN号	0888-8892
DOI	10.1111/cobi.13797
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa)
英文摘要	There is increasing interestin broad-scale analysis, modeling, and prediction of the distribution and composition of plant species assemblages under climatic, environmental, and biotic change, particularly for conservation purposes. We devised a method to reliably predict the impact of climate change on large assemblages of plant communities, while also considering competing biotic and environmental factors. To this purpose, we first used multilabel algorithms in order to convert the task of explaining a large assemblage of plant communities into a classification framework able to capture with high cross-validated accuracy the pattern of species distributions under a composite set of biotic and abiotic factors. We applied our model to a large set of plant communities in the Swiss Alps. Our model explained presences and absences of 175 plant species in 608 plots with >87% cross-validated accuracy, predicted decreases in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity by 2040 under both moderate and extreme climate scenarios, and identified likely advantaged and disadvantaged plant species under climate change. Multilabel variable selection revealed the overriding importance of topography, soils, and temperature extremes (rather than averages) in determining the distribution of plant species in the study area and their response to climate change. Our method addressed a number of challenging research problems, such as scaling to large numbers of species, considering species relationships and rarity, and addressing an overwhelming proportion of absences in presence-absence matrices. By handling hundreds to thousands of plants and plots simultaneously over large areas, our method can inform broad-scale conservation of plant species under climate change because it allows species that require urgent conservation action (assisted migration, seed conservation, and ex situ conservation) to be detected and prioritized. Our method also increases the practicality of assisted colonization of plant species by helping to prevent ill-advised introduction of plant species with limited future survival probability.
资助项目	Qatar Petroleum ; Qatar National Library ; National Key R& D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; NICHE ; FRAMEWORK ; PATTERNS ; IMPACT ; ALPS
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000687345700001
资助机构	Qatar Petroleum ; Qatar National Library ; National Key R& D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164583]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Ctr Integrat Conservat, Xishuangbanna 666303, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Qatar Univ, Environm Sci Ctr, Doha, Qatar 5.CAS HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad, Pakistan 6.Via G Saragat 4, Parma, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Bai, Yang,Dai, Junhu,et al. A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering[J]. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY,2021:10.
APA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Bai, Yang,Dai, Junhu,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2021).A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering.CONSERVATION BIOLOGY,10.
MLA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering".CONSERVATION BIOLOGY (2021):10.