The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146219

	The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China
	He, Guanhao 10,11; Xu, Yanjun 12; Hou, Zhulin 1; Ren, Zhoupeng 2; Zhou, Maigeng 3; Chen, Yang 4; Zhou, Chunliang 5; Xiao, Yize 6; Yu, Min 7; Huang, Biao 1
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2021-07-10
卷号	777 页码:8
关键词	Compound hot extremes Mortality risk Global warming China
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146219
通讯作者	Ma, Wenjun(mawj@gdiph.org.cn)
英文摘要	Background: Global warming may increase the frequency of compound hot extremes (CHEs). This study aimed to assess the current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to CHEs in China. Methods: Daily meteorological, air pollution and mortality data were collected in 364 locations from 2006 to 2017 across China. Hot day/night was identified as a day where daily Tmax/Tmin was higher than its 90th percentile in summer. CHE was defined as a hot night with a following hot day. Mortality risk attributed to CHEs in each location was first evaluated using a distributed lag non-linear model. Location-specific association was pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis model, and attributable fraction in the current time and mortality risk from CHEs under different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) in the future were assessed. Results: CHEs (RR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.19 & ndash;1.28) were associated with greater mortality risk, and 0.96% mortality was attributable to CHEs. We found that female, the elderly, and people living in north China were more vulnerable to CHEs. In addition, more intensive (RR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.06 & ndash;1.08) and consecutive CHEs (RR: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.02 & ndash;1.17) could increase mortality risk. We further observed a seven to nineteen fold deaths attributable to CHEs in 2090s under middle and high climate change scenarios. Conclusion: Our study found that CHEs significantly increased mortality risk and would cause considerable mortality burden in future. These findings suggest that it is necessary to develop clinical and public health policy to alleviate the mortality burden associated with CHEs. (c) 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V.
资助项目	NationalNatural Science Foundation of China[42075173] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606200] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China[2019A1515011880] ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project[201704020194] ; Guangdong Health Innovation Platform
WOS关键词	HEAT WAVES ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACT ; MODIFIERS ; CLIMATE ; SLEEP
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000655611600002
资助机构	NationalNatural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project ; Guangdong Health Innovation Platform
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163959]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ma, Wenjun
作者单位	1.Jilin Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changchun 130062, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunicable Dis Control & Pr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Peoples R China 6.Yunnan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Kunming 650034, Yunnan, Peoples R China 7.Zhejiang Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hangzhou 310009, Peoples R China 8.Jinan Univ, Sch Med, Guangzhou 510632, Peoples R China 9.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510080, Peoples R China 10.Southern Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510515, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Guanhao,Xu, Yanjun,Hou, Zhulin,et al. The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,777:8.
APA	He, Guanhao.,Xu, Yanjun.,Hou, Zhulin.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Zhou, Maigeng.,...&Ma, Wenjun.(2021).The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,777,8.
MLA	He, Guanhao,et al."The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 777(2021):8.