Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104208

	Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach
	Xie, Gang 1; Qian, Yatong 1,2; Wang, Shouyang 1
刊名	TOURISM MANAGEMENT
	2021-02-01
卷号	82 页码:10
关键词	Cruise Big data Gravitational search algorithm Tourism demand forecasting
ISSN号	0261-5177
DOI	10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104208
英文摘要	After more than ten years of exponential development, the growth rate of cruise tourist in China is slowing down. There is increasingly financial risk of investing in homeports, cruise ships and promotional activities. Therefore, forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand is a prerequisite for investment decision-making and planning. In order to enhance forecasting performance, a least squares support vector regression model with gravitational search algorithm (LSSVR-GSA) is proposed for forecasting cruise tourism demand with big data, which are search query data (SQD) from Baidu and economic indexes. In the proposed model, hyper-parameters of the LSSVR model are optimized with GSA. By comparing these models with various settings, we find that LSSVR-GSA with selected mobile keywords and economic indexes can achieve the highest forecasting performance. The results indicate the proposed framework of the methodology is effective and big data can be helpful predictors for forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000571686500006
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52214]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Xie, Gang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2021,82:10.
APA	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,82,10.
MLA	Xie, Gang,et al."Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 82(2021):10.