A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade

doi:10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y

	A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade
	Sun, Yuying 1; Zhang, Xun 2; Wang, Shouyang 3
刊名	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
	2020-04-18
页码	17
关键词	Decomposed and combined models exports and imports forecasts hierarchy trade structure
ISSN号	1009-6124
DOI	10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y
英文摘要	Analyzing the underlying characteristics of trade values movements has attracted much attention in the domestic research. However, the proposed understanding of these characteristics is limited by the intrinsic complexity of the imports/exports. Since economic systems are naturally organized by hierarchies, a novel hierarchical model is proposed in this paper to forecast China's foreign trade. First, the foreign trade data are disaggregated from perspectives of trading partners and trading products, forming two independent hierarchical models with total exports and imports as target variables. Second, a bottom-up strategy is applied. All bottom time series are modelled by corresponding control variables according to trading theories. Forecasts for bottom time series are then combined to generate initial forecasts for total exports and imports. Finally, forecasts for total imports and exports from the two hierarchical models, plus a single VECM model are combined to generate final forecasts. Empirical experiments show that this proposed forecasting model approach significantly outperforms benchmark models and produces consistent forecasts for both total imports and exports or detailed items, which helps a lot for analyzing future trading structure evolution and making foreign trade policies.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573251] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71703156] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center of Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS ; Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistics, Xiamen University[201601]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000527448000001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51372]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Zhang, Xun
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang. A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:17.
APA	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,17.
MLA	Sun, Yuying,et al."A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):17.