A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102891

	A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting
	Xie, Gang 2; Qian, Yatong 1,2; Wang, Shouyang 2
刊名	ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH
	2020-03-01
卷号	81 页码:16
关键词	Tourism demand Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise Data characteristic analysis Time series forecasting
ISSN号	0160-7383
DOI	10.1016/j.annals.2020.102891
英文摘要	With the frequent occurrence of irregular events in recent years, the tourism industry in some areas, such as Hong Kong, has suffered great volatility. To enhance the predictive accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, a decomposition-ensemble approach is developed based on the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, data characteristic analysis, and the Elman's neural network model. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study firstly investigates how data characteristic analysis is used in a decomposition-ensemble approach. The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms other models in both point and interval forecasts for different prediction horizons, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for forecasting tourism demand, especially for time series with complexity.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71642006] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Sociology
语种	英语
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000527848700029
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51366]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Xie, Gang
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting[J]. ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2020,81:16.
APA	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting.ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,81,16.
MLA	Xie, Gang,et al."A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting".ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH 81(2020):16.