Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population

doi:10.1007/s11424-020-8195-z

	Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population
	Liu, Qing 2; Liu, Xiuli 1,3,4
刊名	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
	2020-04-19
页码	18
关键词	Age structure Beijing cohort-component population projection universal two-child policy
ISSN号	1009-6124
DOI	10.1007/s11424-020-8195-z
英文摘要	This paper explores the impacts of the universal two-child policy on Beijing's population in the long term. It gives a detail estimation of Beijing population considering the latest fertility and immigration policy and can help related government department management population. The cohortcomponent method based on a net migration was applied to project population by age for Beijing from 2020 to 2050 in four fertility scenarios. The innovation is the estimation method of the mortality rate with the life table linked with life expectancy. The results show that, though the basic development trend of Beijing's population will not change essentially under the universal two-child policy, low birth rate and aging problems will be improved. Compared with the partial policy relaxation, the total population will be 876,478 persons more than that in 2050, the share of population aged 0-14 will increase 1.1 percentage points, and the aged dependency ratio will decrease 1.96 percentage points. Some measures should be taken to encourage more couples to have a second child and introduce more young talents to promote Beijing's prosperity.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874184] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71642006] ; Key Deployment Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000527528200007
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51351]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Liu, Xiuli
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Southwest Univ, High Sch, Chongqing 400700, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Qing,Liu, Xiuli. Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:18.
APA	Liu, Qing,&Liu, Xiuli.(2020).Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,18.
MLA	Liu, Qing,et al."Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):18.