Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118892

	Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation
	Lu, Quanying 3; Chai, Jian 4,6; Wang, Shouyang 3,5; Zhang, Zhe George 1,6; Sun, Xiaojie Christine 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
	2020-02-01
卷号	245 页码:14
关键词	BSEM Energy conservation Emissions reduction Path analysis Road transportation Scenario analysis
ISSN号	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118892
英文摘要	As the largest mode in China's transportation industry, road transportation is the vital part to achieve a goal of congestion and emissions reduction. We analyzed the future development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with road transportation. First, a Bayesian structural equation model (BSEM) was developed to explore the internal relations of total demand, structure, and technology as factors impacting the road transportation system. Second, the core influence factors were screened using path analysis. Finally, a scenario analysis model was established to analyze potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction under different conditions. The results show that total demand has the largest direct effect among all influencing factors; however, if we consider indirect influences arising from interactions between latent variables, then traffic structure becomes the most important factor with a combined impact coefficient of -1.63. The respective potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction of road transportation are projected to be approximately 65,237.61 ktoe (37.33% rate) and 41 million tons (8.38%) during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020) and reach approximately 91,923.63 ktoe (51.67%) and 68 million tons (12.66%) by 2025. Our results imply that to achieve China's energy conservation and emissions reduction goals, quantity and structure should be emphasized in the short term, whereas technology is critical over the long term. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874133] ; Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program of Shaanxi Province, China
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000503739400092
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/50451]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Chai, Jian; Wang, Shouyang
作者单位	1.Simon Fraser Univ, Beedie Sch Business, Burnaby, BC, Canada 2.Calif State Univ Los Angeles, Sch Business & Econ, Los Angeles, CA 90032 USA 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, 80 Zhongguancun East Rd, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, 266 Xinglong Sect Xifeng Rd, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Inst Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 6.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Dept Decis Sci, Washington, DC USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Quanying,Chai, Jian,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2020,245:14.
APA	Lu, Quanying,Chai, Jian,Wang, Shouyang,Zhang, Zhe George,&Sun, Xiaojie Christine.(2020).Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,245,14.
MLA	Lu, Quanying,et al."Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 245(2020):14.