Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China

doi:10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室

	Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China
	Zhou Qi 2; Xu Qiang 2; Peng Dalei 2; Fan Xuanmei 2; Ouyang Chaojun 1,3; Zhao Kuanyao 2; Li Huajin 2; Zhu Xing 2
刊名	LANDSLIDES
	2020
页码	DOI: 10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615
关键词	Loess landslide Numerical simulation Maximum likelihood estimation Parameter probability Spatial distribution
ISSN号	1612-510X
DOI	10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615
产权排序	2
文献子类	Article;Early Access
英文摘要	Landslide disasters are associated with severe losses on the Loess Plateau of China. Although early warning systems and susceptibility mapping have mitigated this issue to some extent, most methods are qualitative or semi-quantitative in the site-specific range. In this paper, a quantitative spatial distribution model is presented for site-specific loess landslide hazard assessment. Coupled with multi-temporal remote sensing images and high-precision UAV cloud point data, a total of 98 loess landslides that have occurred since 2004 on the Heifangtai terrace were collected to establish a landslide volume-date and retreating distance database. Eleven loess landslides are selected to construct a numerical model for parameter back analysis, and the accuracy of the simulation results is quantitatively evaluated by the centroid distance and overlapping area. Different volumes and receding distance rates of landslides are fitted to determine the relationship between cracks and potential volume, and different volumes and parameters are combined to simulate the spatial distribution of potential loess landslides. The results of this study reveal that landslide volumes mainly range between 1 x 10(3)and 5 x 10(5)m(3), and the historical occurrence probability reaches 0.551. The optimal parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method to obtain a uniform distribution parameter value probability model, and the results show that the error of the estimated length within a range of 0.05 from the optimal parameter does not exceed 15%. In the selected slope slide case, farmland near the toe of the slope primarily includes exposed hazards with probabilities greater than 0.7. This work provides a useful reference for local disaster reduction and a theoretical methodology for hazard assessments.
电子版国际标准刊号	1556-9551
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000548075300001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/46852]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者	Xu Qiang; Peng Dalei
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm IMHE, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 2.Chengdu Univ Technol, State Key Lab Geohazard Prevent & Geoenvironm, Chengdu 610059, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou Qi,Xu Qiang,Peng Dalei,et al. Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China[J]. LANDSLIDES,2020:DOI: 10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615.
APA	Zhou Qi.,Xu Qiang.,Peng Dalei.,Fan Xuanmei.,Ouyang Chaojun.,...&Zhu Xing.(2020).Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China.LANDSLIDES,DOI: 10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615.
MLA	Zhou Qi,et al."Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China".LANDSLIDES (2020):DOI: 10.1080/15569543.2020.1780615.