A dynamic model of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 outbreak to analyze the effectiveness of control measures

doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000023925

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

	A dynamic model of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 outbreak to analyze the effectiveness of control measures
	Yang, Shuhang 5; Liu, Yu 6; Chen, Ke 11; Li, Tong 12; Huang, Yi 1; Chen, Xiaolei 2; Qi, Pengfang 3; Xu, Yazhi 4; Yu, Feifei 7; Yang, Yuling 8
刊名	MEDICINE
	2021-02-05
卷号	100 期号:5 页码:13
关键词	control measures Coronavirus Disease 2019 critical time dynamic model retrospective analysis
ISSN号	0025-7974
DOI	10.1097/MD.0000000000023925
通讯作者	Yang, Shuhang(yangsh018@mailtsinghua.edu.cn)
英文摘要	The World Health Organization (WHO) classified the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) as a global pandemic in March. Scholars predict that the pandemic will continue into the coming winter and will become a seasonal epidemic in the following year. Therefore, the identification of effective control measures becomes extremely important. Although many reports have been published since the COVID-19 outbreak, no studies have identified the relative effectiveness of a combination of control measures implemented in Wuhan and other areas in China. To this end, a retrospective analysis by the collection and modeling of an unprecedented number of epidemiology records in China of the early stage of the outbreaks can be valuable. In this study, we developed a new dynamic model to describe the spread of COVID-19 and to quantify the effectiveness of control measures. The transmission rate, daily close contacts, and the average time from onset to isolation were identified as crucial factors in viral spreading. Moreover, the capacity of a local health-care system is identified as a threshold to control an outbreak in its early stage. We took these factors as controlling parameters in our model. The parameters are estimated based on epidemiological reports from national and local Center for Disease Control (CDCs). A retrospective simulation showed the effectiveness of combinations of 4 major control measures implemented in Wuhan: hospital isolation, social distancing, self-protection by wearing masks, and extensive medical testing. Further analysis indicated critical intervention conditions and times required to control an outbreak in the early stage. Our simulations showed that South Korea has kept the spread of COVID-19 at a low level through extensive medical testing. Furthermore, a predictive simulation for Italy indicated that Italy would contain the outbreak in late May under strict social distancing. In our general analysis, no single measure could contain a COVID-19 outbreak once a health-care system is overloaded. Extensive medical testing could keep viral spreading at a low level. Wearing masks functions as favorably as social distancing but with much lower socioeconomic costs.
WOS研究方向	General & Internal Medicine
语种	英语
出版者	LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
WOS记录号	WOS:000614237200032
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/55950]
专题	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Shuhang
作者单位	1.Univ Chicago, Dept Med, 5841 S Maryland Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 2.Ludong Univ, Yantai, Peoples R China 3.Anhui Univ Finance & Econ, Hefei, Peoples R China 4.Liaoning Univ Technol, Jinzhou, Peoples R China 5.Tsinghua Univ, Yau Math Sci Ctr, Beijing 100086, Peoples R China 6.HuaHuiChangTian Beijing Informat Technol Co Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Ocean Univ China, Qingdao, Peoples R China 8.Southeast Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Urban Underground Engn & Environm, Nanjing, Peoples R China 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, CAS Key Lab Mt Ecol Restorat & Bioresource Utiliz, Chengdu, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, Ecol Restorat & Biodivers Conservat Key Lab Sichu, Chengdu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Shuhang,Liu, Yu,Chen, Ke,et al. A dynamic model of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 outbreak to analyze the effectiveness of control measures[J]. MEDICINE,2021,100(5):13.
APA	Yang, Shuhang.,Liu, Yu.,Chen, Ke.,Li, Tong.,Huang, Yi.,...&Chen, Youhua.(2021).A dynamic model of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 outbreak to analyze the effectiveness of control measures.MEDICINE,100(5),13.
MLA	Yang, Shuhang,et al."A dynamic model of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 outbreak to analyze the effectiveness of control measures".MEDICINE 100.5(2021):13.