Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China

doi:10.1007/s11629-017-4787-z

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > Journal of Mountain Science > Journal of Mountain Science-2018 > Vol15 No.8

	Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China
	Li Ming; Tian Cong-shan; Wang Yu-kuan; Liu Qin; Lu Ya-feng; Wang Shan
刊名	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
	2018
卷号	15 期号:8 页码:1836-1850
关键词	Debris flow Hazard assessment Relative degree analysis Rough set theory Future climate change Minjiang River basin
ISSN号	1672-6316
DOI	10.1007/s11629-017-4787-z
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters.
电子版国际标准刊号	1993-0321
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000442239600016
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/35576]
专题	Journal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2018_Vol15 No.8
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,et al. Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2018,15(8):1836-1850.
APA	Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,Liu Qin,Lu Ya-feng,&Wang Shan.(2018).Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,15(8),1836-1850.
MLA	Li Ming,et al."Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 15.8(2018):1836-1850.