Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming

doi:10.1029/2020WR028830

	Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming
	Liu, Wenbin 2; Yang, Tao 1,2; Sun, Fubao 1,2,3,4; Wang, Hong 2; Feng, Yao 2; Du, Muye 2
刊名	WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
	2021-03-01
卷号	57 期号:3 页码:16
ISSN号	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2020WR028830
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	River flooding is among the costliest natural disasters with severe economic, societal, and environmental consequences. However, substantial uncertainties remain in global and regional projections of future flood conditions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) and/or global hydrological models (GHMs). Using physical models coupled with machine learning (ML), for the first time, we project changes in flood magnitudes of 2062 global river basins by constraining physical-based streamflow simulations with observations under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming scenarios identified for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We found that, during the validation period, the GHMs-simulated flood magnitudes would improve with reduced uncertainty over the selected river basins after ML with a Long Short-Term Memory network. Our estimation suggested that flood magnitudes would increase in many Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitude rivers (e.g., Lena River, Amur River and Volga River) but decrease in some river basins in southern Finland and Eastern Europe in future periods (i.e., 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming levels). In 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warmer worlds, the decreasing flood magnitudes in most South American rivers are associated with decreased soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration induced by warmer temperatures. Although the geographical pattern of changes in flood magnitudes for the +2 degrees C experiment is close to that of the +1.5 degrees C experiment, a 1.5 degrees C warming target is more likely to reduce flood magnitudes of many river basins worldwide (e.g., in central and eastern Siberia, Alaska/ Northwest Canada and South America).
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42025104] ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2020RC004] ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000635680800049
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161760]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Sun, Fubao
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Akesu Natl Stn Observ & Res Oasis Agroecosyst, Akesu, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,et al. Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2021,57(3):16.
APA	Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,Wang, Hong,Feng, Yao,&Du, Muye.(2021).Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,57(3),16.
MLA	Liu, Wenbin,et al."Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 57.3(2021):16.