Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124315

	Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes
	Tian, Jing; Zhang, Yongqiang
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2020-04-01
卷号	583 页码:14
关键词	Irrigation water requirement Future climate scenarios CO2 fertilization Central Asia Land use cover
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124315
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	As one of the largest arid and semiarid areas in the world, Central Asia (CA) has been facing severe water crisis. Agricultural irrigation consumes most water resources there. However, it is not clear how the irrigation water requirement (IWR) varies spatially and temporally in CA, especially under CO2 fertilization and land use change. This study, for the first time, quantifies changes of IWR for two predominant crops (cotton and winter wheat) over CA under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, both of which consider CO2 fertilization effects) and land use projections. Our results show that without considering atmospheric CO2 concentration for estimating IWR would result in large errors and even different signs of the changes. In the future, IWR for cotton and winter wheat tends to increase in 2020s and 2040s but decrease in 2060s and 2080s under RCP2.6 and CO2 fertilization. The change magnitude is less than 5%. Under RCP4.5 and CO2 fertilization, most areas in CA exhibit an increase of less than 5%. The maximum increases of 5%-15% for cotton occur in Tajikistan. The maximum increase of more than 50% for winter wheat occurs in Tajikistan under both climate scenarios. The IWR in Turkmenistan is most sensitive to land use change, with 33% increase compared with IWR in 2015. The other four countries have small differences (less than 10%) between 2015 and 2030. Severe water security pressure is predicted in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and the smallest in Tajikistan. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of IWR for the Central Asian countries in the future and helps the decision maker for sensible water management.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA2004030201] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talent Program and IGSNRR Supporting Fund[YJRCPT2019-101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671354]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; VEGETATION ; MODELS ; WHEAT
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000527388300014
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talent Program and IGSNRR Supporting Fund ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159854]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongqiang
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, IGSNRR, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, A11 Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tian, Jing,Zhang, Yongqiang. Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2020,583:14.
APA	Tian, Jing,&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2020).Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,583,14.
MLA	Tian, Jing,et al."Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 583(2020):14.