Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

doi:10.1002/joc.6626

	Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas
	Wu Xinying 2; Hao Zengchao 2; Tang Qiuhong 3,4; Singh, Vijay P.1,5; Zhang Xuan 2; Hao Fanghua 2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2020-05-10
页码	11
关键词	climate change compound event drought hot extreme
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.6626
通讯作者	Hao Zengchao(haozc@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7-1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June-July-August (December-January-February) season will increase by 12.38-17.20% (7.83-11.19%) in 2050-2099 relative to that in 1950-1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69-19.63% (9.60-14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.
资助项目	U.S. Department of Energy ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601014] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730645]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE EXTREMES ; CONCURRENT DROUGHTS ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; RISK ; MOUNTAINS ; HEATWAVES ; PATTERNS ; SUMMER ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000531286800001
资助机构	U.S. Department of Energy ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159780]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hao Zengchao
作者单位	1.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Xinying,Hao Zengchao,Tang Qiuhong,et al. Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2020:11.
APA	Wu Xinying,Hao Zengchao,Tang Qiuhong,Singh, Vijay P.,Zhang Xuan,&Hao Fanghua.(2020).Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,11.
MLA	Wu Xinying,et al."Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2020):11.