Early forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacities

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138995

	Early forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacities
	Ren, Hongyan 1,2; Zhao, Lu 1,2; Zhang, An 1,2; Song, Liuyi 1,2; Liao, Yilan 1,2; Lu, Weili 1,2; Cui, Cheng 1,2
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2020-08-10
卷号	729 页码:8
关键词	COVID-19 Ecological niche model China's megacities Risk zones Early forecasting
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138995
通讯作者	Ren, Hongyan(renhy@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Zhang, An(zhangan@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Recently, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide public health threat. Early and quick identification of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 infection is increasingly vital for the megacities implementing targeted infection prevention and control measures. In this study, the communities with confirmed cases during January 21-February 27 were collected and considered as the specific epidemic data for Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. We evaluated the spatiotemporal variations of the epidemics before utilizing the ecological niche models (ENM) to assemble the epidemic data and nine socioeconomic variables for identifying the potential risk zones of this infection in these megacities. Three megacities were differentiated by the spatial patterns and quantities of infected communities, average cases per community, the percentages of imported cases, as well as the potential risks, although their COVID-19 infection situations have been preliminarily contained to date. With higher risks that were predominated by various influencing factors in each megacity, the potential risk zones coverd about 75% to 100% of currently infected communities. Our results demonstrate that the ENM method was capable of being employed as an early forecasting tool for identifying the potential COVID-19 infection risk zones on a fine scale. We suggest that local hygienic authorities should keep their eyes on the epidemic in each megacity for sufficiently implementing and adjusting their interventions in the zones with more residents or probably crowded places. This study would provide useful clues for relevant hygienic departments making quick responses to increasingly severe epidemics in similar megacities in the world. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571158] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFB0503500]
WOS关键词	OUTBREAKS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000537433400018
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159572]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ren, Hongyan; Zhang, An
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ren, Hongyan,Zhao, Lu,Zhang, An,et al. Early forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacities[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,729:8.
APA	Ren, Hongyan.,Zhao, Lu.,Zhang, An.,Song, Liuyi.,Liao, Yilan.,...&Cui, Cheng.(2020).Early forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacities.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,729,8.
MLA	Ren, Hongyan,et al."Early forecasting of the potential risk zones of COVID-19 in China's megacities".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 729(2020):8.