A multiobjective evolutionary optimization method based critical rainfall thresholds for debris flows initiation

doi:10.1007/s11629-019-5812-1

	A multiobjective evolutionary optimization method based critical rainfall thresholds for debris flows initiation
	Yan Yan 1,2; Zhang Yu 3; Hu Wang 3; Guo Xiao-jun 4; Ma Chao 5; Wang Zi-ang 1; Zhang Qun 6
刊名	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
	2020-07-15
页码	14
关键词	Debris flow Critical rainfall thresholds Multiobjective evolutionary optimization Artificial neural network Pareto optimality
ISSN号	1672-6316
DOI	10.1007/s11629-019-5812-1
通讯作者	Hu Wang(huwang@uestc.edu.cn)
英文摘要	At present, most researches on the critical rainfall threshold of debris flow initiation use a linear model obtained through regression. With relatively weak fault tolerance, this method not only ignores nonlinear effects but also is susceptible to singular noise samples, which makes it difficult to characterize the true quantization relationship of the rainfall threshold. Besides, the early warning threshold determined by statistical parameters is susceptible to negative samples (samples where no debris flow has occurred), which leads to uncertainty in the reliability of the early warning results by the regression curve. To overcome the above limitations, this study develops a data-driven multiobjective evolutionary optimization method that combines an artificial neural network (ANN) and a multiobjective evolutionary optimization implemented by particle swarm optimization (PSO). Firstly, the Pareto optimality method is used to represent the nonlinear and conflicting critical thresholds for the rainfall intensityIand the rainfall durationD.An ANN is used to construct a dual-target (dual-task) predictive surrogate model, and then a PSO-based multiobjective evolutionary optimization algorithm is applied to train the ANN and stochastically search the trained ANN for obtaining the Pareto front of theI-Dsurrogate prediction model, which is intended to overcome the limitations of the existing linear regression-based threshold methods. Finally, a double early warning curve model that can effectively control the false alarm rate and negative alarm rate of hazard warnings are proposed based on the decision space and target space maps. This study provides theoretical guidance for the early warning and forecasting of debris flows and has strong applicability.
资助项目	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0906] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41901008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61976046] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFC1502504] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2682018CX05] ; Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project[Z191100001419015] ; China Scholarship Council
WOS关键词	INTENSITY-DURATION THRESHOLDS ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; VIBRATION SIGNAL ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; WASTE LANDFILL ; HIDDEN NODES ; RIVER-BASIN ; EARTHQUAKE ; NETWORKS ; PYRENEES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000548813000002
资助机构	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key R&D Program of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project ; China Scholarship Council
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158384]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hu Wang
作者单位	1.Southwest Jiaotong Univ, MOE Sch Civil Engn, Key Lab High Speed Railway Engn, Chengdu 610031, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Comp Sci & Engn, Chengdu 611731, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Surface Proc & Hazards, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Soil & Water Conservat, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 6.Sichuan Inst Land & Space Ecol Restorat & Geol Ha, Chengdu 610081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yan Yan,Zhang Yu,Hu Wang,et al. A multiobjective evolutionary optimization method based critical rainfall thresholds for debris flows initiation[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2020:14.
APA	Yan Yan.,Zhang Yu.,Hu Wang.,Guo Xiao-jun.,Ma Chao.,...&Zhang Qun.(2020).A multiobjective evolutionary optimization method based critical rainfall thresholds for debris flows initiation.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,14.
MLA	Yan Yan,et al."A multiobjective evolutionary optimization method based critical rainfall thresholds for debris flows initiation".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE (2020):14.