Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8

	Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
	Wang, Huanjiong 1,2; Wu, Chaoyang 1,2; Ciais, Philippe 3; Penuelas, Josep 4,5; Dai, Junhu 1,2; Fu, Yongshuo 6; Ge, Quansheng 1,2
刊名	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
	2020-10-02
卷号	11 期号:1 页码:9
ISSN号	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8
通讯作者	Wang, Huanjiong(wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Wu, Chaoyang(wucy@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change. Climate warming is advancing spring leaf unfolding, but it is also reducing the cold periods that many trees require to break winter dormancy. Here, the authors show that 7 of 12 current chilling models fail to account for the correct relationship between chilling accumulation and heat requirement, leading to substantial overestimates of the advance of spring phenology under climate change.
资助项目	National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871032] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2018070] ; Program for 'Kezhen' Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2018RC101] ; ERC Synergy grant[ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
WOS关键词	DORMANCY RELEASE ; TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENCE ; PLANT PHENOLOGY ; CARBON UPTAKE ; THERMAL TIME ; FRUIT-TREES ; PHOTOPERIOD ; BREAKING ; BUDBURST ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE RESEARCH
WOS记录号	WOS:000577121500008
资助机构	National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for 'Kezhen' Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS ; ERC Synergy grant
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157187]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Huanjiong; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.IPSL LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 4.Global Ecol Unit CREAF CSIC UAB, CSIC, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 5.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 6.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Huanjiong,Wu, Chaoyang,Ciais, Philippe,et al. Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1):9.
APA	Wang, Huanjiong.,Wu, Chaoyang.,Ciais, Philippe.,Penuelas, Josep.,Dai, Junhu.,...&Ge, Quansheng.(2020).Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1),9.
MLA	Wang, Huanjiong,et al."Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020):9.