How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

	How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change
	Krysanova, Valentina 5; Zaherpour, Jamal ; Didovets, Iulii 5; Gosling, Simon N.6; Gerten, Dieter 5,7; Hanasaki, Naota 8; Mueller Schmied, Hannes 9,10; Pokhrel, Yadu 1; Satoh, Yusuke 2,4; Tang, Qiuhong 3
刊名	CLIMATIC CHANGE
	2020-10-12
页码	25
关键词	Climate change Global hydrological models River discharge projections Model evaluation Model performance Model weighting Credibility of projections
ISSN号	0165-0009
DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0
通讯作者	Krysanova, Valentina(krysanova@pik-potsdam.de)
英文摘要	Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.
资助项目	Projekt DEAL ; BMBF[01LS1711F] ; JSPS KAKENHI[17K12820] ; NSFC[41730645] ; Newton Advanced Fellowship
WOS关键词	SCALE ; WATER ; UNCERTAINTY ; RUNOFF ; IMPACT ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PERFORMANCE ; STREAMFLOW ; ENSEMBLE
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000577049600001
资助机构	Projekt DEAL ; BMBF ; JSPS KAKENHI ; NSFC ; Newton Advanced Fellowship
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157053]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Krysanova, Valentina
作者单位	1.Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA 2.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 5.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany 6.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham, England 7.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany 8.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 9.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany 10.Senckenberg Leibniz Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr S, Frankfurt, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krysanova, Valentina,Zaherpour, Jamal,Didovets, Iulii,et al. How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2020:25.
APA	Krysanova, Valentina.,Zaherpour, Jamal.,Didovets, Iulii.,Gosling, Simon N..,Gerten, Dieter.,...&Wada, Yoshihide.(2020).How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,25.
MLA	Krysanova, Valentina,et al."How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE (2020):25.