Identification of Maize Yield Trend Patterns in the North China Plain

doi:10.1007/s42106-020-00121-5

	Identification of Maize Yield Trend Patterns in the North China Plain
	Zhang, Zemin 1,2; Lu, Changhe 1,2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION
	2020-10-28
页码	13
关键词	Maize Trend pattern Yield stagnation Net return The north china plain
ISSN号	1735-6814
DOI	10.1007/s42106-020-00121-5
通讯作者	Lu, Changhe(luch@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Yield growth stagnation in grain crops has been reported worldwide over recent decades. To understand this recent crop yield trend and its causes in China, we conducted an analysis of maize (Zea mays L.) in the North China Plain (NCP) as a case study. First, we analyzed the change characteristics of maize yield for the whole region during 1998-2015, then identified trend patterns at county level via an approach based mainly on the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods, and finally, analyzed the contribution of major causal factors to maize yield changes based on multiple linear regression (MLR) function. The results indicated that regional mean maize yield in the whole NCP increased by 0.02-2.03% per year before 2011, then declined by-0.83% during 2011-2015. Regionally, maize yield in the southern NCP did not improve greatly; in the north, it increased before 2011, then declined or stagnated thereafter. Only 40 counties showed a continuous increasing trend (IN), whereas 180 counties displayed an increasing-stagnating trend (IN-ST); 52 and 40 counties showed trend patterns of stagnating (ST) and decreasing (DE) in yield, respectively. On the whole, the maize yield in 87.8% of the counties tended to stagnate or even decrease. The reason was mainly attributed to the reduced net returns due to the quickly rising costs of labor and production material. To stimulate yield growth, it is essential to increase the profitability of maize by adopting appropriate policy measures to improve production efficiency.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671093] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604701]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; GAPS ; PRECIPITATION ; POTENTIALS ; IMPACTS ; CROPS ; RICE
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000584869800001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156663]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Lu, Changhe
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zemin,Lu, Changhe. Identification of Maize Yield Trend Patterns in the North China Plain[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION,2020:13.
APA	Zhang, Zemin,&Lu, Changhe.(2020).Identification of Maize Yield Trend Patterns in the North China Plain.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION,13.
MLA	Zhang, Zemin,et al."Identification of Maize Yield Trend Patterns in the North China Plain".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION (2020):13.