Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak

doi:10.1007/s00477-020-01929-3

	Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak
	Zhang, Wen-bin 2,3; Ge, Yong 2,3; Liu, Mengxiao 2,3; Atkinson, Peter M.1,2; Wang, Jinfeng 2,3; Zhang, Xining 2,3; Tian, Zhaoxing 4
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2020-11-13
页码	18
关键词	COVID-19 Resuming work Socio-economic activities Heterogeneity Beijing
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-020-01929-3
通讯作者	Ge, Yong(gey@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China. As the virus spread worldwide causing a global pandemic, China reduced transmission at considerable social and economic cost. Post-lockdown, resuming work safely, that is, while avoiding a second epidemic outbreak, is a major challenge. Exacerbating this challenge, Beijing hosts many residents and workers with origins elsewhere, making it a relatively high-risk region in which to resume work. Nevertheless, the step-by-step approach taken by Beijing appears to have been effective so far. To learn from the epidemic progression and return-to-work measures undertaken in Beijing, and to inform efforts to avoid a second outbreak of COVID-19, we simulated the epidemiological progression of COVID-19 in Beijing under the real scenario of multiple stages of resuming work. A new epidemic transmission model was developed from a modified SEIR model for SARS, tailored to the situation of Beijing and fitted using multi-source data. Because of strong spatial heterogeneity amongst the population, socio-economic factors and medical capacity of Beijing, the risk assessment was undertaken spatiotemporally with respect to each district of Beijing. The epidemic simulation confirmed that the policy of resuming work step-by step, as implemented in Beijing, was sufficient to avoid a recurrence of the epidemic. Moreover, because of the structure of the model, the simulation provided insights into the specific factors at play at different stages of resuming work, allowing district-specific recommendations to be made with respect to monitoring at different stages of resuming work . As such, this research provides important lessons for other cities and regions dealing with outbreaks of COVID-19 and implementing return-to-work policies.
资助项目	national natural science foundation for distinguished young scholars of China[41725006]
WOS关键词	TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS ; CHINA
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000589463900002
资助机构	national natural science foundation for distinguished young scholars of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156591]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ge, Yong
作者单位	1.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Fac Sci & Technol, Lancaster LA1 4YR, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Univ Int Hosp, Emergency Dept Peking, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Wen-bin,Ge, Yong,Liu, Mengxiao,et al. Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2020:18.
APA	Zhang, Wen-bin.,Ge, Yong.,Liu, Mengxiao.,Atkinson, Peter M..,Wang, Jinfeng.,...&Tian, Zhaoxing.(2020).Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,18.
MLA	Zhang, Wen-bin,et al."Risk assessment of the step-by-step return-to-work policy in Beijing following the COVID-19 epidemic peak".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT (2020):18.