Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions

doi:10.3390/atmos11101076

	Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions
	Liu, Yang 1; Geng, Xiu 1,2; Hao, Zhixin 1,2; Zheng, Jingyun 1,2
刊名	ATMOSPHERE
	2020-10-01
卷号	11 期号:10 页码:19
关键词	climate change Central Asia climate extreme indices agricultural production food security agricultural adaptation strategies
DOI	10.3390/atmos11101076
通讯作者	Hao, Zhixin(haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 degrees C and 2.34 degrees C at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986-2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the alpha = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 degrees C scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 degrees C scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia's agriculture.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41831174]
WOS关键词	EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; FUTURE CHANGES ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; WHEAT ; WATER ; PROJECTIONS ; FORMULATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000584503600001
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156579]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hao, Zhixin
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yang,Geng, Xiu,Hao, Zhixin,et al. Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2020,11(10):19.
APA	Liu, Yang,Geng, Xiu,Hao, Zhixin,&Zheng, Jingyun.(2020).Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions.ATMOSPHERE,11(10),19.
MLA	Liu, Yang,et al."Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions".ATMOSPHERE 11.10(2020):19.