Coupling system dynamics analysis and risk aversion programming for optimizing the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123209

	Coupling system dynamics analysis and risk aversion programming for optimizing the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains
	Chen, Yizhong 1; Li, Jing 2; Lu, Hongwei 3; Yan, Pengdong 4
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
	2021
卷号	278 页码:16
关键词	Water management Shale gas Mixed noises System dynamics Conditional value-at-risk Two-stage stochastic risk-aversion programming
ISSN号	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123209
通讯作者	Li, Jing(lijingb10@hebtu.edu.cn) ; Lu, Hongwei(luhw@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Water management has increasingly become a hotspot in shale gas supply chains. This study develops a comprehensive modeling framework for the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains, which is integrated with techniques of system dynamics model and two-stage stochastic risk-aversion programming. White and colored noises are used for addressing stochastic characterization of shale gas productivity. Regional water resources carrying capacity is reflected based on the system dynamics model. The developed model cannot only effectively address stochastic parameters in the objective and constraints, but also offer a linkage between the pre-regulated policies and corresponding economic implications raised from improper policies. A Marcellus-based case in Pennsylvania is then performed to validate the applicability of the developed model. Results reveal that shale gas production curve is more sensitive to colored and mixed noises than white noise. High flowback and recycle rates would increase carrying capacity of shale wells by 1.8% in 2023. An increase in weighting factor (e.g., from 0 to 30) would induce a rise in system cost (e.g., from $1.22x10(11) to $1.34x10(11)) but a reduction in conditional value-at risk value (e.g., from $6.83x10(10) to $3.83x10(10)). Weighting factor thus can be served as an indicator to show how much the decision makers' attention to system risk. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
资助项目	Youth Top Talent Program of Hebei Provincial Department of Education[BJ2020019] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK1003] ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province[E2020202117] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890824] ; Science Foundation of Hebei Normal University[L2019B36] ; Scientific and Technological Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Hebei Province[QN2019054] ; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[WL2018003]
WOS关键词	CARRYING-CAPACITY ; SICHUAN BASIN ; OPTIMIZATION ; MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; MARCELLUS ; QUALITY ; DESIGN ; MARKET ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000592390600012
资助机构	Youth Top Talent Program of Hebei Provincial Department of Education ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Science Foundation of Hebei Normal University ; Scientific and Technological Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Hebei Province ; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156363]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei
作者单位	1.Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Tianjin 300401, Peoples R China 2.Hebei Normal Univ, Coll Resource & Environm Sci, Hebei Key Lab Environm Change & Ecol Construct, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Tianjin Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul Engn Simulat & Safety, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Yizhong,Li, Jing,Lu, Hongwei,et al. Coupling system dynamics analysis and risk aversion programming for optimizing the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2021,278:16.
APA	Chen, Yizhong,Li, Jing,Lu, Hongwei,&Yan, Pengdong.(2021).Coupling system dynamics analysis and risk aversion programming for optimizing the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,278,16.
MLA	Chen, Yizhong,et al."Coupling system dynamics analysis and risk aversion programming for optimizing the mixed noise-driven shale gas-water supply chains".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 278(2021):16.