Debris Flow Analyst (DA): A debris flow model considering kinematic uncertainties and using a GIS platform

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105877

	Debris Flow Analyst (DA): A debris flow model considering kinematic uncertainties and using a GIS platform
	Wu, Yuming 1; Lan, Hengxing 1,2
刊名	ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
	2020-12-20
卷号	279 页码:11
关键词	Debris flow Kinematic uncertainties Monte Carlo simulation Stochastic differential equations
ISSN号	0013-7952
DOI	10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105877
通讯作者	Lan, Hengxing(lanhx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Although the main driving force of debris flows is simply gravity, the dynamic processes are very complex. Kinematic uncertainties during motion make it difficult to exactly simulate debris flows. In traditional numerical simulation models of debris flows, the kinematic uncertainties are generally not considered in the Lagrangian description. In addition, the challenge of obtaining accurate simulation parameters further suggests the necessity of probabilistic modeling of debris flows. In this study, a novel statistical debris flow simulation model (Debris Flow Analyst model), is proposed in the Lagrangian description, in which the inherent stochasticity in the motion of a debris flow is described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this model, the accelerations of moving debris are calculated by Newton's second law, and their locations are estimated based on Monte Carlo simulation. According to case studies, the proposed model provides results close to the analytical solution in a 1-D simulation of dam breaks in the Eulerian description and reduces some numerical oscillations. Additionally, the Debris Flow Analyst model can produce reasonable results based on a single-phase rheological model in 2-D simulations of a debris flow in Tibet and a flow-like landslide triggered by storms on 4-5 November 1993 in Hong Kong. From the theoretical perspective, our model is equivalent to the total variation diminishing (TVD) scheme in the Eulerian description. In addition, the statistical model provides a new tool to estimate kinematic uncertainties in the hazard analysis of debris flows on GIS platforms.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41525010] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701458] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790443] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41941019] ; Youth Science Fund of the LREIS, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[O88RAA0EYA] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RAA02YA] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program[2019QZKK0904] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS[XDA23090301] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS[XDA19040304] ; Three Gorges Follow-up Work Geological Disaster Prevention[0001212018CC60020]
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000597310200018
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Science Fund of the LREIS, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; Innovation Project of LREIS ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program ; Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS ; Three Gorges Follow-up Work Geological Disaster Prevention
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/137387]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Lan, Hengxing
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Changan Univ, Coll Geol Engn & Geomat, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Yuming,Lan, Hengxing. Debris Flow Analyst (DA): A debris flow model considering kinematic uncertainties and using a GIS platform[J]. ENGINEERING GEOLOGY,2020,279:11.
APA	Wu, Yuming,&Lan, Hengxing.(2020).Debris Flow Analyst (DA): A debris flow model considering kinematic uncertainties and using a GIS platform.ENGINEERING GEOLOGY,279,11.
MLA	Wu, Yuming,et al."Debris Flow Analyst (DA): A debris flow model considering kinematic uncertainties and using a GIS platform".ENGINEERING GEOLOGY 279(2020):11.