Spatial and temporal patterns of drought hazard for China under different RCP scenarios in the 21st century

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101948

	Spatial and temporal patterns of drought hazard for China under different RCP scenarios in the 21st century
	Liu, Yujie 1,2; Chen, Jie 1,2; Pan, Tao 2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
	2021
卷号	52 页码:11
关键词	Hazard assessment Drought Climate change RCP scenario China
ISSN号	2212-4209
DOI	10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101948
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Pan, Tao(pantao@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Drought is one of the most common natural disasters, with significant negative impacts on socioeconomic development and the natural environment. Evaluating this hazard is essential for risk assessment and management. In this study, historical climate data for China in the period 1961 to 2010 were used to determine the appropriate timescales for applying the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to evaluate drought hazard. Simulated representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenario climate data for 2011-2099 were obtained, and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test was used to assess the significance of drought trends. The frequency of three drought grades and durations were chosen to reflect the spatial and temporal variation in drought hazard in the three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. The results indicate that, in these three stages, 2071-2099 has the highest frequency (national averaged 32.54% for RCP4.5 and 32.55% for RCP8.5) and longest duration (national averaged 3.93 months for RCP4.5 and 4.12 months for RCP8.5), followed by 2041-2070 and 2011-2040. In terms of spatial distribution, drought hazards in northern China (medium temperate zone, warm temperate zone, and plateau temperate zone) will be greater than that in southern China, especially the non-monsoon region. Comparing the two scenarios, the severity of different drought hazards under RCP8.5 is higher that under RCP4.5, i.e., higher frequency, longer duration, and more significant drying trends. These results provide references for adapting to extreme climate change and preventing and reducing the risk of drought disasters.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671107] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC101] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS[QYZDB-SSW-DQC005] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040301] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2016049]
WOS关键词	STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ; INDEX ; MODEL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SEVERITY ; PATHWAYS
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000608423200004
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136369]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie; Pan, Tao
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie,Pan, Tao. Spatial and temporal patterns of drought hazard for China under different RCP scenarios in the 21st century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2021,52:11.
APA	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie,&Pan, Tao.(2021).Spatial and temporal patterns of drought hazard for China under different RCP scenarios in the 21st century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,52,11.
MLA	Liu, Yujie,et al."Spatial and temporal patterns of drought hazard for China under different RCP scenarios in the 21st century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 52(2021):11.