Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations from a seasonal perspective

doi:10.1007/s00477-020-01785-1

	Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations from a seasonal perspective
	Li, Ziyan 3; Huang, Shengzhi 3; Liu, Dengfeng 3; Leng, Guoyong 1,2; Zhou, Shuai 3; Huang, Qiang 3
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2020-04-01
卷号	34 期号:3-4 页码:575-592
关键词	Climate change Human activities The Budyko equation Seasonal scale The upper Han River Basin China's Five-year Plan
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-020-01785-1
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com)
英文摘要	Previous studies attempting to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variations in a changing environment have widely focused on an annual scale, while seasonal scales are rarely involved. China is the largest socialist country in the world, and its economic development is affected by its Five-year Plan policy. To this end, the upper Han River Basin, the largest tributary of the Yangtze River Basin, was selected as a case study. A seasonal-scale Budyko framework was extended based on the monthly abcd model in this study for quantifying the effects of climate and human activities changes on seasonal runoff variations, especially exploring the effect of China's Five-year Plan policy. Results disclose that: (1) the change point in the annual runoff series is 1990, and the monthly abcd model achieves good performance in the prechange and postchange period; (2) the relative contribution of climate change to runoff variations is 62.99%, 70.20%, 87.54%, and 90.30% in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively, indicating that climate change is the dominant factor controlling runoff variations in every season; (3) the contributions of climate change and human activities show obvious dynamic and seasonal characteristics, which are strongly impacted by the implementation of the Five-year Plan policy. Generally, the findings of this study provide valuable references for local reasonable water resource planning and management to make timely and appropriate use of the water supply.
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; WATER-BALANCE ; RIVER-BASIN ; STREAMFLOW DECREASE ; BUDYKO FRAMEWORK ; LOESS PLATEAU ; LANCANG RIVER ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000524871000007
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/133844]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi
作者单位	1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Ziyan,Huang, Shengzhi,Liu, Dengfeng,et al. Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations from a seasonal perspective[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2020,34(3-4):575-592.
APA	Li, Ziyan,Huang, Shengzhi,Liu, Dengfeng,Leng, Guoyong,Zhou, Shuai,&Huang, Qiang.(2020).Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations from a seasonal perspective.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,34(3-4),575-592.
MLA	Li, Ziyan,et al."Assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations from a seasonal perspective".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 34.3-4(2020):575-592.