Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136502

	Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels
	Guo, Yi 1; Huang, Shengzhi 1; Huang, Qiang 1; Leng, Guoyong 3,4; Fang, Wei 1; Wang, Lu 1; Wang, Hao 2
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2020-04-10
卷号	712 页码:12
关键词	Meteorological thought Hydrological drought Drought propagation Propagation threshold Conditional probability model
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136502
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com)
英文摘要	What the extent of meteorological drought could trigger the corresponding hydrological drought with different levels? This question is an important topic in the field of drought propagation, which however has not been resolved. Therefore, a novel model based on a Bayesian network was proposed to address this issue in this study. In this model, the drought pooling and excluding methods were applied to eliminate minor drought events. A drought matching approach based on drought propagation time was proposed to achieve the one by one matching between different types of drought. Moreover, based on the matched drought events and the copula-based conditional probability model, the drought propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels were determined. In addition, the interval conditional probability was calculated to further explore the sensitivity of hydrological drought response to different meteorological drought conditions. Furthermore, the propagation ratio was proposed to characterize the differences of drought propagation threshold among various regions. The Wei River Basin was selected as a case study. Results indicated that the results of drought propagation threshold were reliable and accurate. The increase of interval conditional probability showed a typical S-curve, which can intuitively obtain the probability of hydrological drought occurrence at different levels under specific meteorological drought condition, so as to effectively guide drought preparedness and mitigation. The propagation ratio can describe the overall resistance of the basin to meteorological drought, and it mainly depended on the meteorological and underlying surface conditions as well as groundwater supply. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[51709221] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0405900] ; Key laboratory research projects of Department of Education, Shaanxi Province[17JS104] ; Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi[2017slkj-19]
WOS关键词	SOCIOECONOMIC DROUGHT ; RIVER-BASIN ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; CLIMATE ; SEVERITY ; DURATION ; INDEX ; VARIABILITY ; RESILIENCE
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000512369600116
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key laboratory research projects of Department of Education, Shaanxi Province ; Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132472]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi
作者单位	1.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China 2.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 3.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Yi,Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,et al. Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,712:12.
APA	Guo, Yi.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Huang, Qiang.,Leng, Guoyong.,Fang, Wei.,...&Wang, Hao.(2020).Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,712,12.
MLA	Guo, Yi,et al."Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 712(2020):12.