Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau

doi:10.1029/2019EA000962

	Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau
	Jia, Kun 1,3; Ruan, Yunfeng 2; Yang, Yanzhao 1,3; You, Zhen 3
刊名	EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
	2019-12-01
卷号	6 期号:12 页码:2362-2378
DOI	10.1029/2019EA000962
通讯作者	Yang, Yanzhao(yangyz@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in temperature simulations in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was comprehensively assessed by an improved score-based and multiple-criteria method using data collected from 1961 to 2005. Future temperatures were also simulated based on a multimodel ensemble coupled with the Delta downscaling method for near-term (2006-2050) and long-term (2051-2095) projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results demonstrated that all the GCMs evaluated in our study could capture the seasonal temperature patterns. However, most GCMs tended to underestimate temperatures by an average of -2.0 degrees C. All the GCMs could effectively simulate temporal distribution, with a mean correlation coefficient of 0.997. However, they did not perform well in reproducing spatial distribution. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method with multiple criteria provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. MPI-ESM-LR, CMCC-CMS, and GFDL-ESM 2M showed a better temperature simulation performance compared to the other GCMs that we have assessed. Topographic correction could effectively enhance spatial distribution simulation; however, this increased temperature underestimation. Future temperatures were projected to increase by 1.4 degrees C and 1.6 degrees C in near-term, and by 2.4 degrees C and 4.0 degrees C in long-term under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. High temperatures mainly occurring in the southeastern end of the Himalayas, as well as the northern and southeastern margins of the TP. The results are expected to provide valuable information on climate change and its impact on hydrology, ecology, and socioeconomics of the TP.
资助项目	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program[2019QZKK1006] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20010201]
WOS关键词	GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ; FUTURE TEMPERATURE ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; PRECIPITATION ; CHINA ; BASIN ; DROUGHT ; MAXIMUM ; IMPACT
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000514111700011
资助机构	Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132189]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Yanzhao
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Anhui Jianzhu Univ, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Hefei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia, Kun,Ruan, Yunfeng,Yang, Yanzhao,et al. Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,2019,6(12):2362-2378.
APA	Jia, Kun,Ruan, Yunfeng,Yang, Yanzhao,&You, Zhen.(2019).Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau.EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,6(12),2362-2378.
MLA	Jia, Kun,et al."Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau".EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE 6.12(2019):2362-2378.