Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China

doi:10.3390/su11195165

	Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China
	Chen, Yuanyuan 1,2; Lu, Changhe 1,2
刊名	SUSTAINABILITY
	2019-10-01
卷号	11 期号:19 页码:14
关键词	grain consumption forecast VAR model policy implications China
DOI	10.3390/su11195165
通讯作者	Lu, Changhe(luch@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Associated with population and income growth, grain consumption in China is expected to increase, and thus has inevitably influenced the food security. Using statistical data of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from 1978 to 2017, this study adopting the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and implied demand approach, projected the future consumption of major grains (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) for food, feed, and other uses in China during 2018-2030. On this basis, it further discussed their implications on grain security. The results showed that during 2018-2030, the Chinese dietary structure would continue to shift from food grain to animal foods. As a result, the grain's food consumption will decrease slightly (1.5%), while the feed consumption will increase significantly (31.4%), contributing 71.4% to the total increase of grain consumption. By 2030, the total grain consumption will increase by 20.2% to 846.2 million tons, of which 50.2% will be consumed for feeding animals. In the total consumption, maize will be the largest consumed grain variety, accounting for 39.2%. The security of rice and wheat would be optimistic in the future, while the security of maize and soybeans is likely to decline, and thus needs to be given high priority. These findings have great policy implications for improving the grain security, suggesting that in addition to promote the expansion of maize and soybean growing area by adjusting the cropping structure of the arable land, great efforts should be paid to improve the yield of both crops. In addition, residents should be guided to adjust the dietary structure, and also, it is important to improve the animal feeding efficiency.
资助项目	Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4-3] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671093] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS关键词	FOOD SECURITY ; DEMAND ; GROWTH ; IMPACT ; POLICY ; MODEL ; HOME
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000493525500024
资助机构	Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131682]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Lu, Changhe
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Yuanyuan,Lu, Changhe. Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(19):14.
APA	Chen, Yuanyuan,&Lu, Changhe.(2019).Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China.SUSTAINABILITY,11(19),14.
MLA	Chen, Yuanyuan,et al."Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China".SUSTAINABILITY 11.19(2019):14.