Streamflow response to projected climate changes in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin based on regional climate model (RegCM4.3) simulation

doi:10.1016/j.jher.2019.08.002

	Streamflow response to projected climate changes in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin based on regional climate model (RegCM4.3) simulation
	Hassan, Mujtaba 3,4; Du, Pengfei 4; Mahmood, Rashid 1; Jia, Shaofeng 1; Iqbal, Waheed 2,5
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH
	2019-12-01
卷号	27 页码:32-49
关键词	Regional climate modeling South Asian summer monsoon Hydrological modeling Northwestern Upper Indus Basin
ISSN号	1570-6443
DOI	10.1016/j.jher.2019.08.002
通讯作者	Hassan, Mujtaba(mujtaba@ist.edu.pk)
英文摘要	In the present research, we used bias corrected output of regional climate model (RegCM4.3) to generate streamflow for future climate change projections in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin (NUIB) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The average annual runoff was found to be continuously increasing by the end of 21st century. The increase in precipitation as well as the streamflow for summer and winter in the NUIB indicated that RegCM4.3 simulated climate change projections were realistically transferred to HEC-HMS hydrological model. Maximum streamflow peaks, both in frequency and magnitude, were observed in July and August over three streamflow gauges (i.e. Besham, Nowshera and Khairabad) posing possible threats of flood risks during the monsoon season in Pakistan. Significant streamflow changes were projected for winter and spring seasons. The analysis of flow duration curve for three hydrometric stations indicates that the flow occurrence probability could be greater under both scenarios relative to the reference period. The increase in streamflow was projected under high (Q(5)) and medium (Q(50)) flow, which could possibly be related with the increase in monsoon precipitation events in the NUIB. Overall it is to be expected that the NUIB will confront more floods as a result of projected increase in medium and high flow, which demands better policies and management towards the water resources of the NUIB. This study is expected to contribute considerably to climate change impact assessment studies over the NUIB, Pakistan.
WOS关键词	ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; WATER-RESOURCES ; HEC-HMS ; FUTURE CLIMATOLOGIES ; RUNOFF SIMULATION ; RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; HIMALAYA ; GLACIER
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000500382200003
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/130109]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hassan, Mujtaba
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Stockholm Univ MISU, Dept Meteorol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden 3.Inst Space Technol, Dept Space Sci, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan 4.Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, SKLESPC, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 5.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hassan, Mujtaba,Du, Pengfei,Mahmood, Rashid,et al. Streamflow response to projected climate changes in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin based on regional climate model (RegCM4.3) simulation[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH,2019,27:32-49.
APA	Hassan, Mujtaba,Du, Pengfei,Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,&Iqbal, Waheed.(2019).Streamflow response to projected climate changes in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin based on regional climate model (RegCM4.3) simulation.JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH,27,32-49.
MLA	Hassan, Mujtaba,et al."Streamflow response to projected climate changes in the Northwestern Upper Indus Basin based on regional climate model (RegCM4.3) simulation".JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH 27(2019):32-49.