The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road

doi:10.3390/su11174796

	The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road
	Mou, Naixia 1,4; Xie, Yanxin 4; Yang, Tengfei 3; Zhang, Hengcai 1; Kim, Yoo Ri 2
刊名	SUSTAINABILITY
	2019-09-01
卷号	11 期号:17 页码:16
关键词	Maritime Silk Road oil price tanker shipping situation ARDL model cargo flow
DOI	10.3390/su11174796
通讯作者	Zhang, Hengcai(zhanghc@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Nearly 70% of the world's maritime crude oil transportation relies on the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). In order to deeply explore the impact of slumping oil price on the shipping situation of tanker along the MSR, this paper establishes the relationship between monthly ship and oil price through Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Distributions of cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped are compared to explore the changing law of tanker shipping situation. The study finds: (1) The correlation between the cargo flow situation of the tanker seaborne export and oil price, where the export cargo flow correlation is stronger than that of the import cargo flow. (2) The MSR tanker shipping situation is lagging (3 months) behind the impact of oil price. The lag effect in Europe, North Asia and East Asia is strong while that in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak. (3) After the oil price slumped, the tanker shipping cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage, and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime operations management measures.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771476] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771436] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province[ZR2016DM02] ; Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-4-3]
WOS关键词	CRUDE-OIL ; CROSS-CORRELATIONS ; NETWORK ; SHOCKS ; VOLATILITY ; EVOLUTION ; COUNTRIES ; DEMAND ; TRADE
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000486877700284
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ; Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129760]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Hengcai
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Surrey, Sch Hospitality & Tourism Management, Fac Arts & Social Sci, Guildford GU2 7UU, Surrey, England 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China 4.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Geomat, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mou, Naixia,Xie, Yanxin,Yang, Tengfei,et al. The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(17):16.
APA	Mou, Naixia,Xie, Yanxin,Yang, Tengfei,Zhang, Hengcai,&Kim, Yoo Ri.(2019).The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road.SUSTAINABILITY,11(17),16.
MLA	Mou, Naixia,et al."The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road".SUSTAINABILITY 11.17(2019):16.