Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015

doi:10.1186/s13071-019-3778-z

	Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
	Ding,Fangyu 1,2; Wang,Qian 1,2; Fu,Jingying 1,2; Chen,Shuai 1,2; Hao,Mengmeng 1,2; Ma,Tian 1,2; Zheng,Canjun 3; Jiang,Dong 1,2,4
刊名	Parasites & Vectors
	2019-11-08
卷号	12 期号:1
关键词	Visceral leishmaniasis Spatiotemporal patterns Environmental niche Infection risk
ISSN号	1756-3305
DOI	10.1186/s13071-019-3778-z
通讯作者	Zheng,Canjun(zhengcj@chinacdc.cn) ; Jiang,Dong(jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	AbstractBackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease that is spread to humans by the bites of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Although this vector-borne disease has been eliminated in most parts of China, it still poses a significant public health burden in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Understanding of the spatial epidemiology of the disease remains vague in the local community. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of VL in the region in order to assess the potential threat of the disease.MethodsBased on comprehensive infection records, the spatiotemporal patterns of new cases of VL in the region between 2005 and 2015 were analysed. By combining maps of environmental and socioeconomic correlates, the boosted regression tree (BRT) model was adopted to identify the environmental niche of VL.ResultsThe fitted BRT models were used to map potential infection risk zones of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, revealing that the predicted high infection risk zones were mainly concentrated in central and northern Kashgar Prefecture, south of Atushi City bordering Kashgar Prefecture and regions of the northern Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. The final result revealed that approximately 16.64 million people inhabited the predicted potential infection risk areas in the region.ConclusionsOur results provide a better understanding of the potential endemic foci of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with a 1 km spatial resolution, thereby enhancing our capacity to target the potential risk areas, to develop disease control strategies and to allocate medical supplies.
语种	英语
出版者	BioMed Central
WOS记录号	BMC:10.1186/S13071-019-3778-Z
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129439]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zheng,Canjun; Jiang,Dong
作者单位	1. 2. 3. 4.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding,Fangyu,Wang,Qian,Fu,Jingying,et al. Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015[J]. Parasites & Vectors,2019,12(1).
APA	Ding,Fangyu.,Wang,Qian.,Fu,Jingying.,Chen,Shuai.,Hao,Mengmeng.,...&Jiang,Dong.(2019).Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015.Parasites & Vectors,12(1).
MLA	Ding,Fangyu,et al."Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015".Parasites & Vectors 12.1(2019).