Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.430

	Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China
	Fang, Chuanglin ; Cui, Xuegang 1; Li, Guangdong ; Bao, Chao ; Wang, Zhenbo ; Ma, Haitao ; Sun, Siao ; Liu, Haimeng ; Luo, Kui ; Ren, Yufei
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-11-01
卷号	689 页码:820-830
关键词	Sustainable development pattern Urbanization and eco-environment coupling Coupler System dynamics Feedback
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.430
通讯作者	Cui, Xuegang(cuixg.16lx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	China's rapid urbanization has produced problems of excessive resource use and environmental pollution, threatening the country's sustainable development. Previous studies mainly focused on empirical observation of the interactions between urbanization and the eco-environment, mainly using econometric models which lacked detailed explanations of the coupling mechanisms between various elements. No quantitative models have been developed to describe the complex nonlinear relationships between various elements, so our understanding of urbanization and eco-environment coupling is vague, and therefore not conducive to coordinating the relationship between them. Coupling urbanization with the eco-environment allows us to simulate interactions between them and enables us to explore the most suitable scenarios for sustainable development. We designed and developed the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler (UEC) using system dynamics to simulate regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling and to compare different sustainable development scenarios. UEC integrates human and natural elements. It includes four urbanization submodels (the economy, society, population and construction land) and five eco-environment submodels (water, arable land, ecology, pollution and energy). UEC can fully represent the nonlinear interactions between these submodels by identifying feedback linkages. This allows us to identify an optimal sustainable regional development pattern. We chose the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study research area and obtained the following results: (1) prioritizing urbanization will accelerate economic growth and increase pollution emissions whereas prioritizing the eco-environment will negatively affect both total population and arable land; (2) when sufficient policy and technical support is directed to a particular area, urbanization may not further degrade the ecoenvironment; and (3) simulation results for various scenarios show that the key to guaranteeing sustainable development is improving technical and political support rather than further restricting urbanization. The UEC model is a significant aid to improving sustainable regional planning. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590840] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590842]
WOS关键词	THEORETICAL-ANALYSIS ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; SYSTEM
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000482379400080
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/69753]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cui, Xuegang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang, Chuanglin,Cui, Xuegang,Li, Guangdong,et al. Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,689:820-830.
APA	Fang, Chuanglin.,Cui, Xuegang.,Li, Guangdong.,Bao, Chao.,Wang, Zhenbo.,...&Ren, Yufei.(2019).Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,689,820-830.
MLA	Fang, Chuanglin,et al."Modeling regional sustainable development scenarios using the Urbanization and Eco-environment Coupler: Case study of Beijing Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 689(2019):820-830.